According to Pakistan Meteorological Department’s “Weather Outlook” Monsoon air mass is retreating from Pakistan and Western disturbances will gradually extent to southern latitude leaving next 2-3 months as transition period.
The global climate indicators such as EI Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are likely to oscillate around its neutral position during the months from September-November 2018.
Based upon these climatic conditions together with the analysis of statistically down scaled GCM’s, the weather outlook for the period September-November, 2018, is expected as below: Summer Monsoon weather system will gradually diminish during the first fortnight of the September and rains will be scanty. Amount of rainfall is expected to remain slightly below normal in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Mountainous region of Gilgit Baltistan and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa may receive normal precipitation during the period. However, snowfall season is likely to start at higher elevation by the end of October. Due to gradual fall in temperature, snow and glacier melt contribution to the Indus River will be minimal during the period.
Due to poor monsoon, Mangla reservoir could not be filled to its full capacity. Water shortages are most likely to occur during Rabi sowing season, therefore a judicious use of available water has to be assured.