Javed Iqbal
Water has become Pakistan’s most precious and most precarious resource. Every year, the monsoon swells rivers for a few weeks, then dries into drought. The politics of water has become existential. In this debate, some critics warn that dams are relics, that we have “500 MAF” lurking beneath our feet in aquifers, and that nature-based solutions like wetlands will save us. These arguments have poetic appeal, but they dangerously misdiagnose a crisis that requires bold, engineering-scale solutions.
Some analysts claim that about 500 million acre-feet (MAF) stored in Pakistan’s riverbeds and aquifers has circulated widely. It sounds reassuring: “We already have the water.” However, upon inspection, a recent article by Climate Call points out that this figure is not an annually renewable reserve, but rather an accumulated stock built up over centuries via seepage and infiltration. If we were to treat it like a bank account we can draw from indefinitely, it would only last 9 – 10 years at current drawdowns, before being exhausted.
Pakistan currently pumps about 50 – 55 MAF of groundwater annually.
But annual recharge from floodwater and rainfall (the “income” to that groundwater bank) is much smaller, much less than what’s being extracted. Thus, the system is being overdrawn.
So, no: the 500 MAF figure is not enough to eliminate the need for surface storage. It cannot substitute for dams; it is part of the mix, but not the backbone.
In the 1950s, Pakistan had per-capita water availability of over 5,000 cubic meters per person per year; today it is around 1,000 cubic meters and projections suggest it will drop further.
The FAO and other bodies observe that surface and groundwater sources, plus precipitation, are under pressure from rising population, climate change and inefficient water use.
Without large reservoirs, Pakistan has very limited buffer to store monsoon rains or glacial melt, to regulate river flows in dry months, to maintain hydropower, or to recharge aquifers in good years. It has only days’ worth of surface water storage compared to the months of the dry season.
Here are the strong, often understated arguments in favour of large dams for Pakistan:
Regulated Supply: Rainfall, river flows and glacier melts are highly seasonal and variable. Dams smooth that variability, storing excess when possible, releasing when needed.
Energy & Climate Resilience: Hydropower from large reservoirs delivers base-load clean electricity. As fossil fuel costs fluctuate and climate change accelerates, that stability is invaluable.
Flood Mitigation (though not perfect): While dams don’t prevent all floods, they reduce their frequency/severity and allow better management of flows, especially critical where downstream populations live densely.
Aquifer Recharge Support: Managed releases, spillways and surface water infrastructure can help recharge groundwater and maintain water tables. Without surface storage, recharge becomes opportunistic and unreliable.
Agricultural & Food Security: Agriculture in Pakistan uses over 90% of the total water. Irrigation needs are large and continuous. During dry spells, there must be water in reserve. Dams provide that insurance.
To address the most common reservations:
Modern technologies, sluice gates, sediment bypass tunnels, dredging, and watershed catchment protection, extend the lifespan. Tarbela’s life has already been extended through such measures.
Dams don’t stop major floods: True, they cannot stop massive flood flows on their own. But they can reduce peaks, slow down surge release, allow better warning and lessen downstream damage. Combined with natural floodplain buffers, the risk is far lower.
Nature-based solutions alone are better: Wetlands, floodplains, river restoration and groundwater recharge are powerful. But they scale poorly under Pakistan’s population density and hydrologic volatility. They are not substitutes, but complements. All big dam projects are driven by vested interests, at the expense of climate-compatible or community solutions: Some are. But rejecting all large dams on that basis risks refusing the strategic infrastructure Pakistan must have. The focus must be on governance, transparency, environmental safeguards and local impacts, not blanket bans.
Where We Stand & What We Must Demand
In short: We must build dams, but do so wisely, with modern engineering, environmental safeguards, fair resettlement policies and integrated water management.
Elements to demand:
Accurate hydrological studies (including sediment inflows, glacial melt trends, and climate change impacts).
Strong design for sediment management and reservoir longevity.
Environmental impact assessments with community inclusion and compensation.
Parallel investment in nature-based solutions, groundwater recharge, rainwater harvesting, and efficient irrigation.
Those who oppose large dams offer a choice that is false: dams versus nature; infrastructure versus communities; storage versus sustainability. The real choice is: with vs. without dams, combined with all other tools. Pakistan has already passed the tipping point of water scarcity. Continuing to debate whether dams are needed is no longer enough. The question now is: which dams, where and how soon? Delay is dangerous.
The writer is a freelance columnist and contributes regularly on issues concerning national security.
