Atle Hetland
We know that Europe and the West are in a new Cold War with Russia, and like during the earlier East-West Cold War era from 1947 to 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, there are major costs to the new Cold War, destabilising and upsetting all countries in the West, including the USA, and also Russia itself and neighbouring countries in the East. There was a window of opportunity to create better East-West relations in the 1990s, but results were not achieved, which was a fault of both parties, since there were some signals that Russia wanted closer contact with Europe and a more Western-oriented development and perhaps more democracy at home. Whether the latter was actually the case may be questioned, because it would have required major changes within Russia and its old authoritarian political traditions, both before and after the Revolution in 1917.
Whatever it all was, it is too late now. Yet, it is also necessary at some stage in the future to look for a thaw and détente in East-West relations – to benefit the West as well as Russia. Currently, there is little hope, with Russia’s invasion war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, with escalation rather than development towards peace, and it is over twelve years since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
In a book entitled “The Border: A Journey Around Russia” (2017), anthropologist and travel writer Erika Fatland has documented that of all Russia’s 14 neighbours with whom it has land borders, it is only Norway that has never been attacked or had territory disputes. This means that Russia has an expansionist and aggressive way of thinking about its relations with its neighbours, indeed Ukraine, with which it ought to have good relations, not war. It even seems that Russia’s high loss of soldiers in the war with Ukraine has little effect on it, and we realise that Russia is a quite outdated country militarily and politically, far from having developed a democratic culture. It will take more than diplomatic talks with the West to change that, probably only at a time when internal demand and mobilisation of people will happen, but that possibility seems far off.
Earlier this week, Ukraine’s National Flag Day was celebrated on 23 August, and its National Day on 24 August, marking its 35 years of independence from the Soviet Union, declared in 1991. The leaders of the Nordic and Baltic countries took part in a summit discussing the future of Ukraine’s ability to protect itself from the massive Russian drone and missile attacks. Andy Burnham also came on his first visit to Ukraine as British Prime Minister. It was important for the West to make pledges for concrete assistance to Ukraine, which is also seen as a broader defence of Europe, at a time when the UK and most other European countries face economic strains.
Russia’s main influence on the West creates major challenges to the countries’ economies, with massive increases in defence expenses, hampering the countries’ other domestic development plans. Donald Trump, President of the USA, which is the largest country in NATO, has said that the European countries must increase their defence budgets, up to five per cent of each country’s GDP in the coming years and by 2035 at the latest. It is especially negative for the youth and their thinking about peace issues and cooperation between countries in a new Cold War era.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the initial negative influence on European industry was caused by the reduced provision of Russian gas and energy, being particularly negative for Germany and its car and other manufacturing industries, in competition with cheaper Chinese cars and other products. Today, there are sanctions and restrictions on all trade between Russia and the West, being negative for companies that had developed export markets in Russia, and certainly also for Russia, whose legal exports to the West have shrunk to a very low level.
Russia’s influence on different European countries varies; those with long borders feel more at risk, indeed the Baltic States, which also have major Russian populations as a result of their time as part of the Soviet Union. Finland, with a long border of 1,340 kilometres with Russia, has suffered from the breakdown of cooperation with Russia, especially the border towns where many Russian tourists and visitors used to come. Generally, Finland has paid a high price for its new, quite hostile relations with Russia after it became a NATO member in 2023, having had to reduce its social services and development budgets to be able to finance the new military build-up. It now has the highest unemployment rate in the EU, above ten per cent. Some analysts say that Finland has become safer as a NATO member, while other analysts say it would have been better if it had maintained close neighbourly relations with the big ‘Russian Bear’, as a buffer to the east.
Hungary and Slovakia have had cordial relations with Russia because of their dependency on oil and gas imports from Russia. The new PM in Hungary, Peter Magyar, who succeeded Viktor Orban, is likely to reduce Hungary’s close cooperation with Russia as part of rebuilding better relations with the EU. The countries in Southern Europe, which are further away from Russia geographically, do not feel the same threat from Russia as the countries in eastern and northern Europe. The Scandinavian country of Norway, with a border with Russia of 198 kilometres, is near Murmansk, where Russia’s large northern nuclear stockpiles and navy are located. Norway has relatively cordial, formal relations with Russia, but the current direct diplomatic dialogue is limited, yet it is in the interest of both countries to maintain it.
Norway has large oil and gas resources in the North Sea, and it benefits from Russia’s much-reduced exports to Europe. Some 45–48 per cent of the gas to Germany comes from Norway, with sales also to the rest of Europe, giving Norway high export incomes. At the same time, Norway, along with Denmark, Sweden and Finland, keeps making big transfers of funds and equipment to help Ukraine protect itself against Russia’s escalating war aggression.
The USA has increased its military budgets, but it is also benefiting from the European countries’ higher budgets and purchases of costly military equipment manufactured in the USA. President Trump has, in blunt ways, said he wants the USA to take over Greenland from Denmark. But that should perhaps rather be seen as a way of underlining that there is a need for an increased military defence presence in the area, including the High North, where Russia and China have interests regarding mineral, fish and other resources. In the coming decades, it is foreseen that there will be an expansion of the Northern Sea Route between Asia and Europe, near North America, in the seas north of Russia, as global warming makes the ice-free season longer than just a few summer months.
Although there is no military Russian aggression against Europe and the West (yet), except for the invasion of Ukraine, which wants to belong to the Western hemisphere, there are high monetary costs for the European countries’ defence build-up against Russia; there may in future also be some forms of other attacks from Russia, such as cyberattacks and even drone attacks. A new Cold War era has begun, and there are not yet signs of a thaw and détente in East-West relations and a new future of peaceful coexistence. The situation is affecting Europe as well as Russia negatively. It is a challenge for diplomats, politicians, peace organisations, the UN, and others to find ways out of the current situation.
The writer is a senior Norwegian social scientist with experience from university, diplomacy and development aid. He can be reached at atlehetland@yahoo.com
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