ADB forecasts 2pc growth

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The thing about projections like the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB), which expects Pakistan’s economy to rebound yet grow among the slowest in the region at about two percent in this fiscal year, is that the analyses and predictions come with all sorts of conditions without meeting which even the meagre gains might not materialise. Just like this time the Manila-based lender is pretty upbeat about Pakistan’s growth prospects in the ongoing fiscal year, but only if all the troubles from the coronavirus do not come back, other economies also reopen and the recent hiccups regarding exports and remittances go away. Now, since everybody knows that is not going to happen just by weaving a magic want, and both forms of inflows require time to be put right, it seems the best we can really hope for this year is pretty strong headwinds despite the decent recovery so far. ABD is also hoping that the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) get back on track very quickly. And since, going by all the reports in the press, the talks are stalled for the moment because of disagreements stemming from problems related to revenue and deficit figures, exactly the troubles that the pandemic has caused, perhaps this was the Bank’s way of saying that the road ahead is still very bumpy and even if it is travelled very carefully it would just fetch two percent growth, which by all expectations is going to be among the lowest in the region.