Washington
U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that it has just 48 hours left to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face a major military escalation, saying “all hell will reign down” if his demands are not met.
Iran is also rolling out new, domestically-produced air defense systems to attack American aircraft, Iranian military spokesman Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari said on Saturday, according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA. The comments came after Iran shot down two U.S. warplanes on Friday.
Separately, a projectile struck near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant on Saturday, killing one staff member and damaging part of the facility, the International Atomic Energy Agency said, citing Iranian authorities. The agency added that no rise in radiation levels was detected, though Director-General Rafael Grossi expressed deep concern, warning that attacks near nuclear sites carry serious risks.
The incident comes amid intensifying hostilities, with Israel saying it carried out a wave of strikes on Iranian air defense systems and missile-related facilities in Tehran as part of efforts to weaken Iran’s military infrastructure. The escalation followed reports that Iran shot down two U.S. aircraft, including an F-15E and an A-10, with one American crew member still missing.
The U.S. State Department said federal agents arrested the niece and grandniece of slain Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani on Friday.
Iran said it carried out a drone strike on an Israel-linked vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, setting the ship on fire, according to state media citing a Revolutionary Guards naval commander.
The “weapon of mass disruption” and market impact
The initial objective of the U.S.-led military campaign was to dismantle Iran’s regional influence, but analysts warn the war may have inadvertently achieved the opposite. Tehran’s successful obstruction of a passage that carries 20% of global oil trade has demonstrated a “weapon of mass disruption” that some experts argue is more potent than a nuclear deterrent.
Iran’s blockade has sent crude prices to multi-year highs, fueling inflationary fears in the U.S. just as the Republican Party prepares for critical midterm elections in November.
The tactical reality on the ground complicates any military solution to reopen the 21-mile-wide transit point. Even if U.S. forces were to seize coastal territories, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retains the capability to disrupt commercial traffic using low-cost drones and missile strikes launched from deep within the Iranian mainland.
“All it takes to deter vessels is one or two drones,” noted Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, highlighting the asymmetrical risk that makes the waterway currently uninsurable for most commercial carriers.
Post-war revenue and deterrence strategies
The intelligence reports further indicate that Iran’s long-term strategy involves transforming the temporary blockade into a permanent regulatory framework. Former CIA Director Bill Burns suggested that Tehran views the ability to charge “passage fees” as a vital mechanism for funding post-war reconstruction.
Iran is expected to use its “discovered” maritime leverage, beyond immediate financial gain, to demand long-term security guarantees and deterrence measures in any final peace settlement with the United States.
As the White House maintains that the President is “confident” the strait will open soon, the administration has also signaled that NATO allies and Gulf nations, who have a higher dependency on these energy corridors, should take a more active role in the maritime security mission.
The shifting stance underscores the difficulty of the current negotiations, as the U.S. seeks to reopen trade routes without being drawn into a protracted and costly ground war.
