Harlan Ullman<\/p>\n
The response by most Americans, less so by one president-elect, to Russian meddling in the US elections is reminiscent of a memorable scene in the movie classic Casablanca. When informed of gambling at Rick\u2019s Caf\u00e9, Captain Louis Renault, aka Claude Raines, blurts out \u201cI am shocked,\u201d as he is being handed his cut of the winnings. Public outcry and outrage to what almost certainly was direction from President Vladimir Putin\u2019s office to intervene in American politics has struck a parallel chord of \u201chow could they dare?\u201d
\nThis reaction is understandable. And this reaction was accelerated by the leak that Donald Trump was briefed by the intelligence community of the contents of a 35 page memo complied by former MI-6 operative, now in hiding, Christopher Steele that described a long relationship between Moscow and the president-elect as well as allegations of salacious sexual behavior by the soon to be president. Mr. Trump vigorously denied these allegations calling them \u201cfake news.\u201d
\nThe now infamous memo had been in circulation since the summer. However, because the information could not be verified, news agencies chose to withhold publication. That changed last week when Buzz feed released the memo on the grounds that the public had a right to know and reach its own conclusions. Whatever the validity or not of the material and whether this was part of Russian active measures to sow confusion in America, a huge brouhaha was created. And it may prove to be impossible to confirm or deny the validity of the reporting. As an aside, this writer knows several of the Russians named in the memo. And the allegations do not square with my knowledge of each. Still, if this were disinformation or a \u201cfalse flag\u201d ploy to conceal other knowledge that could be damaging, it is unlikely this will remain a mystery.
\nYet, since the Soviet Union was created a century ago next November and then imploded into current-day Russia, there is little new here. The most important issue is the repeated failure of generations of Americans, Republicans and Democrats alike, to understand the thinking in Moscow.
\nPart of this failure is due to individual ego and arrogance. Part is due to strategic mirror imaging. And part is because American exceptionalism has led to the conceited and misplaced view that people need to reason as we do or are in need of education to be brought up to our level.
\nFrom Franklin Roosevelt to George W. Bush, American presidents believed that through force of their personality, Soviet and Russian opposite numbers could be cajoled or convinced to place our interests above theirs. FDR tried that and failed with Stalin. Bush looked into Putin\u2019s eyes. The results were not dissimilar.
\nCertainly during the Cold War, our strategic mirror imaging assumed the Soviets thought the same way we did. That was wrong. One striking difference was over the nature of war if it were to come.
\nAmerican strategic military planning assumed that World War III would be a repeat of the Battle of the Atlantic to reinforce Europe during a Soviet military onslaught. Both sides had deployed many thousands of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. But after the mid-1960 with the U.S. shift to the \u201cflexible response\u201d strategy, we believed a \u201cfire break\u201d existed between conventional and nuclear war.
\nThe Soviets saw war as a \u201cfight to the finish\u201d in which no real boundaries existed between the conventional forces we favored and nuclear weapons that would have destroyed much of society. Fortunately, these profound strategic differences were never put to the test. Ironically, Russia\u2019s military doctrine today stresses theater nuclear weapons to offset the West\u2019s perceived advantages in conventional forces.
\nLast, American exceptionalism has impeded understanding Moscow. Jack Kennedy\u2019s willingness \u201cto pay any price and bear any burden\u201d to defend liberty reinforced the threat of \u201cmonolithic communism\u201d meaning the alliance between Red China and the USSR. 58,000 Americans paid that price in Vietnam along with possibly millions more Vietnamese in both the North and South before Hanoi unified the country in 1975.
\nA popular slogan in the mid-1960\u2019s and used by Lyndon Johnson\u2019s administration was the false admonition that we had to stop \u201cthe commies on the Mekong and not the Mississippi\u201d \u2014 and yes that phrase was actually used to justify the war. Barack Obama\u2019s \u201creset\u201d with Russia also reflected this lack of understanding.
\nFrom Putin\u2019s perspective, the U.S. is not trustworthy. It revoked the bedrock of the US-USSR-Russian strategic relationship, the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, in 2001. It created mayhem and chaos in the Iraqi intervention in 2003 inadvertently causing the rise of the Islamic State (IS), a potential existential threat to Russia given its sizable and often unruly Muslim population. And in Moscow, the continued expansion of NATO was perceived as a premeditated act by Washington ultimately to encircle and contain Russia.
\nOverthrowing Muramar Qaddafi in 2011 followed by demands that Syrian President Bashar al Assad must step down leaving a void to be filled by IS were the final acts to cement Putin\u2019s distrust of western policy. From Moscow\u2019s perspective, it was not the Arab Spring or the overthrow of autocratic regimes that might be projected onto Russia that was the danger. It was radical and violent Islam.
\nSadly, the last two American administrations failed to understand Moscow\u2019s thinking and motivations. Now, a new team is taking office. Will it do any better?
\nRussia\u2019s political interference is not new. Nor is American interference there and in many other states over many decades a Casablanca-like revelation. But will our failure to understand Russian thinking change?
\nIf we are to deal effectively with Russia and its interests, some that coincide with ours and many that do not, the starting point must be accurate and thorough knowledge and understanding of Russia and its policies.
\nOtherwise, Captain Renault\u2019s refrain will apply and we will continue to be unforgivably shocked.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Harlan Ullman The response by most Americans, less so by one president-elect, to Russian meddling in the US elections is reminiscent of a memorable scene in the movie classic Casablanca. When informed of gambling at Rick\u2019s Caf\u00e9, Captain Louis Renault, aka Claude Raines, blurts out \u201cI am shocked,\u201d as he is being handed his cut […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-10335","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-article"},"yoast_head":"\n