Beijing:On July 12, an International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) ruling dismissed much of China\u2019s claim to the South China Sea. Since then, there has been a great deal of discussion on the legal ramifications, China\u2019s response and public opinion.
\nBut where does this ruling leave the U.S. alliance with the Philippines \u2014 the country that challenged China\u2019s claims in the first place?
\nThe United States signed a Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines in 1951, making a commitment to come to Manila\u2019s aid if the Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft are attacked. The treaty excludes the shoals and rocks of the South China Sea, specifically mentioning only help to defend the \u201cmetropolitan territory\u201d of the Philippines and the \u201cPacific Area\u201d \u2014 but the July ruling leaves the United States with an alliance security dilemma.
\nSpecifically, the dilemma is how resolutely a state should commit to an ally and the cost this incurs with adversaries. A strong commitment can result in entrapment in an unwanted conflict with an alliance adversary, but a weak commitment engenders feelings of abandonment on the part of the ally and a weakened alliance. In this case, a stronger U.S. commitment to Manila angers Beijing, but a weaker commitment leaves Manila feeling unsupported. Alliances leave both partners with less room to maneuver
\nThe problem is that alliances can be costly. If the United States shows a strong commitment to the Philippines, there\u2019s a risk of being drawn into an unwanted conflict with China. If the Philippines feels overly confident about the U.S. commitment to the alliance, Manila may be more intransigent in its relations with China \u2014 and more willing to engage in riskier behavior, which could lead to a militarized conflict in the South China Sea. The U.S.-Japan alliance and the Japan-China dispute over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea presents a similar alliance dilemma, but in this case Washington has clearly stated its support for Japan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Beijing:On July 12, an International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) ruling dismissed much of China\u2019s claim to the South China Sea. Since then, there has been a great deal of discussion on the legal ramifications, China\u2019s response and public opinion. But where does this ruling leave the U.S. alliance with the Philippines […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-world"],"yoast_head":"\n