Online
\nSEOUL
\nEight months into a strict, coronavirus-triggered border shutdown, nuclear-armed North Korea is widely expected to stage an attention-grabbing display of its latest and most advanced weaponry at a mass military parade in Pyongyang on Saturday.
\nThe cavalcade will mark the 75th anniversary of the ruling Workers\u2019 Party and satellite imagery on the respected 38North website suggests it could be huge.
\n\u201cIt\u2019s very clear they are preparing for a big one,\u201d Vincent Brooks, former commander of US Forces Korea (USFK), told an Atlantic Council conference.
\nThousands of goose-stepping soldiers will march through Kim Il Sung Square, named for North Korea\u2019s founder, under the gaze of his grandson Kim Jong Un, the third member of the family to rule the country.
\nA procession of progressively larger armoured vehicles and tanks will follow, culminating with whatever missiles Pyongyang wants to put on show.
\nThat will depend on the message it wants to send.
\nAs tensions mounted in April 2017 giant canisters big enough to hold intercontinental ballistic missiles — which North Korea had yet to test at the time — rumbled through the square, sending shockwaves through the analyst community.
\nBut in September 2018, with diplomatic processes in full swing among Pyongyang, Washington and Seoul, the ICBMs were conspicuous by their absence — a reticence welcomed by US President Donald Trump.
\nRelations now are more fraught.
\nNuclear negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington have been deadlocked since the collapse of the Hanoi summit in February last year.
\nNorth Korea is widely believed to have continued to develop its arsenal — which it says it needs to protect itself from a US invasion — throughout the discussions.
\nAt the end of December, Kim threatened to demonstrate a \u201cnew strategic weapon\u201d. Analysts anticipate a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) or an ICBM capable of striking the US mainland to be put on show — maybe even one with multiple re-entry vehicle capabilities — but say North Korea will tread carefully to avoid jeopardising its chances with Washington.
\nAnd despite speculation of a potential \u201cOctober Surprise\u201d ahead of the US election on November 3, they say an actual missile launch is unlikely.
\n\u201cShowing it in the parade rather than testing it would be a nonprovocative way of showcasing it,\u201d said Jenny Town, a fellow at the Stimson Center.
\nSaturday\u2019s anniversary comes during a difficult year for North Korea as the coronavirus pandemic and recent storms add pressure to the heavily sanctioned country.
\nThe impoverished nation — whose crumbling health system would struggle to cope with a major virus outbreak — has not confirmed a single case of the disease that has swept the world since first emerging in China, North Korea\u2019s key ally.
\nPyongyang closed its border with China in January to try to prevent contamination, which USFK Commander Robert Abrams said effectively \u201caccelerated the effects\u201d of economic sanctions imposed on North Korea.
\nAnd last week Pyongyang\u2019s troops shot dead a South Korean citizen who had drifted into its waters, apparently as a coronavirus precaution, causing outrage in the South.
\nThe incident sparked a rare apology from Kim himself.
\nThe parade will aim to send the domestic audience a message that \u201cdespite the economic hardships they face, they are a militarily strong nation\u201d, Town said.
\nBut Harry Kazianis of the Center for National Interest warned that with thousands of people involved it could turn into a \u201cdeadly superspreader-like event\u201d if the coronavirus was present in Pyongyang unless \u201cextreme precautions\u201d were used.
\nAnd such protective measures seemed \u201cpretty unlikely\u201d, he added. \u201cClearly masks and missiles don\u2019t mix.\u201d
\nThe tightened coronavirus border controls have also hampered construction of the flagship Pyongyang General Hospital, whose opening has been flagged as part of the 75th anniversary celebrations.
\nNorth Korea has long used giant infrastructure projects to try to burnish the government\u2019s credibility, and Kim has berated officials several times over its progress.
\nPhotos carried by state media in recent weeks show work on the building\u2019s shiny white exterior is in its final phases, but analysts remain sceptical.
\nThe hospital is likely far from being \u201cfunctional\u201d, said Soo Kim of RAND Corporation.
\n\u201cNorth Korea lacks the medical technology, skills, infrastructure, and manpower to adequately provide legitimate medical care to the population,\u201d Kim added.
\n\u201cSo the hospital will become another fixture of North Korea\u2019s \u2018Potemkin village\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Online SEOUL Eight months into a strict, coronavirus-triggered border shutdown, nuclear-armed North Korea is widely expected to stage an attention-grabbing display of its latest and most advanced weaponry at a mass military parade in Pyongyang on Saturday. The cavalcade will mark the 75th anniversary of the ruling Workers\u2019 Party and satellite imagery on the respected […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":149321,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-149312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-world"],"yoast_head":"\n