WASHINGTON: The chances of a sudden change of government in Pakistan are remote as the military is not prepared to bring down the civilian set-up, says Ambassador Robin Raphel.
\nThe former US assistant secretary of state for South Asia was among half a dozen American scholars \u2014 and a Pakistani journalist \u2014 who analysed the current political situation in Pakistan at a recent seminar in Washington.
\nThe speakers highlighted different weaknesses and strengths in the current political set-up and its relations with the country\u2019s powerful military establishment. All agreed that the military would retain its \u2018dominating influence\u2019 over the civilian set-up but would not bring it down.
\n\u201cThe military does not want snap elections,\u201d said Ms Raphel, a respected Pakistan sympathiser in Washington who recently faced an FBI investigation for her alleged friendly relations with Pakistani diplomats. In June, she was cleared of charges and allowed to resume her work as an expert on South Asian affairs.
\nMs Raphel thinks that if elections are held now, \u201clikely beneficiary will be Imran Khan\u201d but the elections will take place as scheduled, in 2018. She and other speakers argued that the military was reluctant to trust Imran Khan because of his \u201cloose cannon\u201d image, which might or might not be true.
\nWhile ruling out the possibility of a military takeover, Ms Raphel warned that the \u201cmilitary may move in if there is a major public disorder in the country\u201d.
\nThe chances of a takeover, however, were remote, she added. \u201cLike the military, the public too has changed and may resist any abrupt move.\u201d
\nBut she underlined \u201csome erosion in public support for democracy\u201d, which she said was worrying and might lead to a situation where the people might be forced to welcome an abrupt change, as they did in 1999.
\n\u201cIf it happens, the United States will weigh its options and will take a decision that is compatible with US interests in the region,\u201d she said.
\nMarvin Weinbaum of the Middle East Institute, a senior Pakistan expert in Washington, said that the transfer of power in 2013 from the PPP to the PML-N was a game-changer, which greatly reduced the chances of an abrupt government change in Pakistan.
\n\u201cThe transfer happened because the two parties did not make the mistake of derailing democracy as Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto did in the 1990s,\u201d he said. \u201cThe transfer also happened because Nawaz Sharif was willing to wait for the next election, which he did not in the 90s.\u201d
\nAgreeing with the two scholars, Pakistani journalist Raza Rumi said that in the past eight years, democracy had been strengthened in Pakistan and it would be difficult to alter the course.
\nIt was the launching of Mr Rumi\u2019s book \u2014 The Fractious Path: Pakistan\u2019s Democratic Transition \u2014 that brought these and other scholars to the National Endowment for Democracy, Washington, for a discussion on the current political situation in Pakistan.
\nThe experts agreed that despite some serious institutional problems, Pakistan would continue (its journey) on the road to democracy.
\n\u201cPakistan\u2019s internal struggle for democratic rights and gradual advance of civilian assertion is overlooked by the western media and commentators, who view Pakistan only through the security prism most notably what the military wants in Afghanistan,\u201d said Mr Rumi while explaining why some experts in the West continue to predict the demise of democracy in Pakistan.
\nMs Raphel noted that democracy survived the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf\u2019s dharna, which caused echoes of coup, but ultimately, \u201cthose echoes subsided and the government emerged stronger than before.\u201d
\nOther speakers noted that recent amendments to the Pakistani Constitution gave more power to provinces and created a system that was far from perfect, but better than before.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
WASHINGTON: The chances of a sudden change of government in Pakistan are remote as the military is not prepared to bring down the civilian set-up, says Ambassador Robin Raphel. The former US assistant secretary of state for South Asia was among half a dozen American scholars \u2014 and a Pakistani journalist \u2014 who analysed the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":908,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-world"],"yoast_head":"\n