Money managers have extended their bearish bets in Chicago-traded corn, wheat, and soybean futures, but this trend has likely eased into the start of September
\nMONITORING DESK
\nCHICAGO
\nSpeculators\u2019 bullish position in the CBOT oil share, measuring soyoil\u2019s share of value in soy products, soared to a 10-month high in the week ended Aug. 29 and it may be approaching record levels in the coming days and weeks.
\nAt the same time, money managers have extended their bearish bets in Chicago-traded corn, wheat, and soybean futures, but this trend has likely eased into the start of September.
\nThe same story has been at the forefront for several weeks now: Large supplies and no threats to the fundamentals in the foreseeable future have kept a lid on grain and oilseed futures. Even recent talk of an early frost that could disrupt U.S. corn and soybean crops has not stirred speculators.
\nContinued expectations for a sufficiently large U.S. corn harvest sent CBOT December corn futures to new contract lows for seven sessions in a row through last Thursday. But as the contract moved deeper into oversold territory it finally got a hefty bounce, and prices notched their biggest daily gain in nearly two years at Thursday\u2019s close.
\nWheat futures also got in on the end-of-month technical buying, and the benchmark December CBOT and K.C. contracts ended the week higher for the first time in eight weeks.
\nMinneapolis wheat struggled though, especially late in the week, as heavy deliveries against the September contract and the unwinding of long Minneapolis\/short Chicago spread positions sent prices lower.
\nThe U.S. soybean harvest is expected to surpass last year\u2019s record, but November soybean futures made a three-week high on Friday led by soybean oil, which hit nearly eight-month highs in the December contract.
\nThe U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that crude soyoil stocks in August fell 10 percent from the previous month, and this had traders circling back to the news of U.S. tariffs on Argentine biodiesel imports from the week earlier and the implications for soybean demand.
\nRobust demand for U.S. soybeans, including strong export sales and inspections, continues to lend price support and limit speculators\u2019 worries over burdensome supply. Recent demand has not been all that bad for corn, but the longer-term outlook on usage may not support a significant enough drawdown on the decades-large stockpile.
\nOn Friday, several industry analysts revised their U.S. corn and soybean harvest outlooks upward, echoing USDA\u2019s larger crop ideas from earlier last month, which turned corn futures lower.
\nSince last Wednesday, commodity funds were buyers of soybeans, wheat, and soybean oil. The trend was somewhat neutral on corn and soybean meal, as Thursday\u2019s corn buying spree was wedged between two healthy selling days.
\nOne of the most notable moves by money managers in the week ended Aug. 29 was the significant extension of the long oilshare futures and options position.
\nAccording to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the spread between the funds\u2019 soybean oil long and soybean meal short has exceeded 100,000 contracts for only the 11th week in history.
\nFunds mildly cut their soybean meal short but drastically lengthened their soyoil long in the week ended Aug. 29, and the spread stands at 103,023 futures and options contracts. The record is 128,936 contracts on April 5, 2016, which could be threatened given last week\u2019s buying and selling activity.
\nMoney managers continued to sell soybean futures and options but at a reduced rate compared to recent weeks. As of Aug. 29, they were net short 28,367 contracts, a modest increase from 23,394 in the week prior.
\nSelling was no problem for funds in corn, as they beefed up their bearish stance to 64,945 futures and options contracts from 17,073 in the week prior. This is the second-most bearish close to August for funds on corn behind 2016 \u2013 though last year\u2019s net short was nearly 100,000 contracts larger.
\nIn Chicago wheat, money managers extended their net short to 77,529 futures and options contracts from 66,751 in the week earlier. This was mostly on the addition of shorts but there were buyers in the soft red winter wheat market for the first time in seven weeks.
\nFunds reduced their net long position in K.C. wheat for the 7th consecutive week to 18,060 futures and options contracts compared with 23,770 in the week prior. Similar to the previous week, speculators were both buyers and sellers of hard red winter wheat.
\nSpeculators\u2019 sentiment in Minneapolis wheat was hardly changed on the week, as they trimmed their bullish stance on the hard red spring wheat to 8,122 futures and options contracts from 8,724 in the previous week.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Money managers have extended their bearish bets in Chicago-traded corn, wheat, and soybean futures, but this trend has likely eased into the start of September MONITORING DESK CHICAGO Speculators\u2019 bullish position in the CBOT oil share, measuring soyoil\u2019s share of value in soy products, soared to a 10-month high in the week ended Aug. 29 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20394,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-20372","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business"},"yoast_head":"\n