DUBAI
\nGet ready to learn more Greek letters. Scientists warn that omicron\u2019s whirlwind advance practically ensures it won\u2019t be the last version of the coronavirus to worry the world.
\nEvery infection provides a chance for the virus to mutate, and omicron has an edge over its predecessors: It spreads way faster despite emerging on a planet with a stronger patchwork of immunity from vaccines and prior illness.
\nThat means more people in whom the virus can further evolve. Experts don\u2019t know what the next variants will look like or how they might shape the pandemic, but they say there\u2019s no guarantee the sequels of omicron will cause milder illness or that existing vaccines will work against them.
\nIt\u2019s why they urge wider vaccination now, while today\u2019s shots still work.
\n\u201cThe faster omicron spreads, the more opportunities there are for mutation, potentially leading to more variants,\u201d Leonardo Martinez, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Boston University, said.
\nSince it emerged in mid-November, omicron has raced across the globe like fire through dry grass. Research shows the variant is at least twice as contagious as delta and at least four times as contagious as the original version of the virus.
\nomicron is more likely than delta to reinfect individuals who previously had COVID-19 and to cause \u201cbreakthrough infections\u201d in vaccinated people while also attacking the unvaccinated. The World Health Organization reported a record 15 million new COVID-19 cases for the week of Jan. 3-9, a 55 percent increase from the previous week.
\nAlong with keeping comparatively healthy people out of work and school, the ease with which the variant spreads increases the odds the virus will infect and linger inside people with weakened immune systems \u2014 giving it more time to develop potent mutations.
\n\u201cIt\u2019s the longer, persistent infections that seem to be the most likely breeding grounds for new variants,\u201d said Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University. \u201cIt\u2019s only when you have very widespread infection that you\u2019re going to provide the opportunity for that to occur.\u201d
\nBecause omicron appears to cause less severe disease than delta, its behavior has kindled hope that it could be the start of a trend that eventually makes the virus milder like a common cold.
\nIt\u2019s a possibility, experts say, given that viruses don\u2019t spread well if they kill their hosts very quickly. But viruses don\u2019t always get less deadly over time.
\nA variant could also achieve its main goal \u2014 replicating \u2014 if infected people developed mild symptoms initially, spread the virus by interacting with others, then got very sick later, Ray explained by way of example.
\n\u201cPeople have wondered whether the virus will evolve to mildness. But there\u2019s no particular reason for it to do so,\u201d he said. \u201cI don\u2019t think we can be confident that the virus will become less lethal over time.\u201d
\nGetting progressively better at evading immunity helps a virus to survive over the long term. When SARS-CoV-2 first struck, no one was immune. But infections and vaccines have conferred at least some immunity to much of the world, so the virus must adapt.
\nThere are many possible avenues for evolution. Animals could potentially incubate and unleash new variants. Pet dogs and cats, deer and farm-raised mink are only a few of the animals vulnerable to the virus, which can potentially mutate within them and leap back to people.
\nAnother potential route: With both omicron and delta circulating, people may get double infections that could spawn what Ray calls \u201cFrankenvariants,\u201d hybrids with characteristics of both types.
\nWhen new variants do develop, scientists said it\u2019s still very difficult to know from genetic features which ones might take off. For example, omicron has many more mutations than previous variants, around 30 in the spike protein that lets it attach to human cells. But the so-called IHU variant identified in France and being monitored by the WHO has 46 mutations and doesn\u2019t seem to have spread much at all.
\nTo curb the emergence of variants, scientists stress continuing with public health measures such as masking and getting vaccinated. While omicron is better able to evade immunity than delta, experts said, vaccines still offer protection and booster shots greatly reduce serious illness, hospitalizations and deaths.
\nAnne Thomas, a 64-year-old IT analyst in Westerly, Rhode Island, said she\u2019s fully vaccinated and boosted and also tries to stay safe by mostly staying home while her state has one of the highest COVID-19 case rates in the US
\n\u201cI have no doubt at all that these viruses are going to continue to mutate and we\u2019re going to be dealing with this for a very long time,\u201d she said.
\nRay likened vaccines to armor for humanity that greatly hinders viral spread even if it doesn\u2019t completely stop it. For a virus that spreads exponentially, he said, \u201canything that curbs transmission can have a great effect.\u201d Also, when vaccinated people get sick, Ray said their illness is usually milder and clears more quickly, leaving less time to spawn dangerous variants.
\nExperts say the virus won\u2019t become endemic like the flu as long as global vaccination rates are so low. During a recent press conference, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that protecting people from future variants \u2014 including those that may be fully resistant to today\u2019s shots \u2014 depends on ending global vaccine inequity.
\nTedros said he\u2019d like to see 70 percent of people in every country vaccinated by mid-year. Currently, there are dozens of countries where less than a quarter of the population is fully vaccinated, according to Johns Hopkins University statistics. And in the United States, many people continue to resist available vaccines.
\n\u201cThese huge unvaccinated swaths in the US, Africa, Asia, Latin America and elsewhere are basically variant factories,\u201d said Dr. Prabhat Jha of the Center for Global Health Research at St. Michael\u2019s Hospital in Toronto. \u201cIt\u2019s been a colossal failure in global leadership that we have not been able to do this.\u201d
\nIn the meantime, new variants are inevitable, said Louis Mansky, director of the Institute for Molecular Virology at the University of Minnesota.
\nWith so many unvaccinated people, he said, \u201cthe virus is still kind of in control of what\u2019s going on.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DUBAI Get ready to learn more Greek letters. Scientists warn that omicron\u2019s whirlwind advance practically ensures it won\u2019t be the last version of the coronavirus to worry the world. Every infection provides a chance for the virus to mutate, and omicron has an edge over its predecessors: It spreads way faster despite emerging on a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-239001","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-world"},"yoast_head":"\n