NEW DELHI
\nIndia\u2019s retail inflation likely surged to an 18-month high in April, largely driven by rising fuel and food prices and staying well above the Reserve Bank of India\u2019s upper tolerance limit for a fourth consecutive month, a Reuters poll found.
\nThe jump has been long anticipated following the Indian government\u2019s decision to wait until after key state elections in March to hike fuel prices. Energy prices globally have soared since Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine in late February.
\nFood inflation, which accounts for nearly half the consumer price index (CPI) basket, reached a multi-month high in March and is expected to remain elevated due to higher vegetable and cooking oil prices globally.
\nThese factors likely pushed inflation in Asia\u2019s third-largest economy to 7.5% on an annual basis in April, according to a May 5-9 Reuters poll of 45 economists, from 6.95% in March.
\nIf realised, that would be the highest inflation rate since October 2020 and well above the RBI\u2019s upper 6% limit.
\nForecasts for the data, due to be released at 1200 GMT on May 12, ranged between 7.0% and 7.85%.
\n\u201cCPI inflation appears to have surged higher still in April on the back of higher food and fuel prices. The bulk of the impact of the recent fuel prices hikes will be felt in April,\u201d said Shilan Shah, senior India economist at Capital Economics.
\n\u201cWe wouldn\u2019t be surprised if core inflation has risen too. The risk is that sustained higher inflation drives up inflation expectations, which push core inflation even higher.\u201d
\nTo make matters worse, the local price of oil, India\u2019s biggest import, has also been subject to upwards pressure from the roughly 4% drop in the rupee this year, with the currency touching a record low on Monday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NEW DELHI India\u2019s retail inflation likely surged to an 18-month high in April, largely driven by rising fuel and food prices and staying well above the Reserve Bank of India\u2019s upper tolerance limit for a fourth consecutive month, a Reuters poll found. The jump has been long anticipated following the Indian government\u2019s decision to wait […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-259822","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-world"},"yoast_head":"\n