The continued failure to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions means that global warming will likely exceed 1.5\u00b0 Celsius, relative to pre-industrial levels. If avoiding a breach of 1.5\u00b0C is still technically possible, we should of course not give up. But the window of opportunity is closing faster than we thought, and deepening geopolitical divisions \u2013 intensified by the pandemic and looming food, energy, and debt crises \u2013 do not augur well for the kind of co-operation that we need. By surpassing 1.5\u00b0C, but then taking measures to bring temperatures back below that threshold by the end of the century. Although climate models have long accounted for this possibility, not much is known about how to reduce the risks \u2013 both environmental and political \u2013 that it would create.
\nAverage global temperatures have already risen 1.1\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels, with significant environmental effects. Every additional tenth of a degree contributes further to the severity and frequency of extreme weather events and increases the risks to health, food, water, livelihoods, and biodiversity. By the time we reach 2\u00b0C, many human and natural systems will be under extreme stress; some ecosystems will struggle to survive, and others already will be gone. Worse, overshoot increases the risk of cascading and irreversible climate impacts. And the political consequences would be no less significant. For many, 1.5\u00b0C has become a line in the sand \u2013 a signifier of humanity\u2019s ability and will to reduce climate risks. While breaching it could lead to a more forceful response to climate change, it also could invite despondency and fatalism. That is why we must start planning for it now.
\nTo that end, there will be a new Global Commission on Governing Risks from Climate Overshoot. Consisting of 16 eminent leaders with diverse backgrounds, it will consider how best to manage the physical and political risks of a world beyond 1.5\u00b0C. Most of the commission is from the Global South, including several former heads of government, ministers, and senior officials. They will present an integrated strategy to tackle the possibility of climate overshoot ahead of the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference.
\nAs an independent commission, they will conduct this important work without the political and organisational constraints that so often hamper such discussions. They are ready to consider all the options, including ideas that are sometimes considered too controversial to broach in other fora. For example, while reducing greenhouse-gas emissions is and should remain our primary goal, they must recognise that this is no longer enough. Additional approaches are now in order. For example, they will explore the potential of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere on a large scale. This is unavoidable if we want to achieve net-zero emissions, let alone the net-negative emissions that are needed to start restoring our planet. But while there are many ways \u2013 both nature-based and technological \u2013 to remove CO2, none is ready at scale, and many elements of this strategy remain contested.
\nThey also will explore avenues for improving and expanding adaptation efforts on the scale needed to address the growing effects of climate change, though the limits of what is feasible here remain unclear. Finally, they will examine the research on \u201csunlight reflection methods,\u201d an intervention designed to reflect a small portion of incoming solar radiation back into space. This option appears to be viable, but it would pose global risks, implying significant governance challenges.
\nThe aim is to bring all these options together into one document for the first time, to weigh the risks of action against the risks posed by a rapidly warming world, and to recommend an integrated strategy based on independent scientific advice and stakeholder consultations. The overshoot strategy will need to be effective, robust, and ethical, grounded in the best available evidence, and consistent with justice, equity, and respect for international law.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The continued failure to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions means that global warming will likely exceed 1.5\u00b0 Celsius, relative to pre-industrial levels. If avoiding a breach of 1.5\u00b0C is still technically possible, we should of course not give up. But the window of opportunity is closing faster than we thought, and deepening geopolitical divisions \u2013 intensified by […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8],"tags":[7636],"class_list":{"0":"post-262268","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-editorial","7":"tag-climate-overshoot"},"yoast_head":"\n