Dr Hasnain Javed<\/p>\n
Only in 2022 alone, the global oil and gas exploration and production market grew by 27.5 per cent and is estimated to be a five trillion dollar industry<\/p>\n
For far too long, Iran has been seen in the light as an extremist Islamic state. In 1997, US-Iran relations turned for the worst after 52 American citizens were kept hostage for an entire year. The fate of Iran seemed to spiral out of control as the international community officially labelled Iran as the \u201csponsor\u201d of many terrorist activities throughout the 80s. This was followed by the first of many sanctions on Iran, famously known as the \u201cIran Sanctions Act of 1996.\u201d
\nFast forward to the year 2022, February, when Russia attacked Ukraine, bringing shock and dismay to the world. The global community unanimously discouraged the Russian attempt to sabotage European peace and sent the European states into a frenzy over its looking energy crisis. Now, as I look at things, the world blames Russia for the ongoing oil crisis. But that, to me, is only one side of the picture. Many are not factoring in the \u201ctight global supplies\u201d for several reasons, which are primarily structural, while the demand is constantly on the rise. The pre-pandemic oil demand was estimated to be around 100.3 million barrels per day; the supply was about 100.6 million barrels per day. Today, the oil demand has soared to 103 million barrels per day while the production stays stagnant at 100.6 million barrels per day \u2013 after factoring in the loss of about a million barrels from Russia. Hence, the world has always been undersupplied.
\nThe global community is banking heavily on sanctions on Russia in response to the war. However, I have an essential question: \u201cIf Iran survived sanctions after sanctions, why can\u2019t Russia?\u201d Only in 2022 alone, the global oil and gas exploration and production market grew by 27.5 per cent and is estimated to be a five trillion dollar industry. I was returning to the question of Iran\u2019s survival throughout the extensive sanction period. The Trump administration maximised pressure on Iran by targeting to cut off 80 per cent of the country\u2019s oil revenue. Yet Iran\u2019s economy sustained the $200 billion loss in foreign income and investment, as President Rouhani confessed.
\nThe truth is that even the global economic pandits missed and miscalculated Iran\u2019s economy\u2019s complexity. The world also failed to reasonably assess Iran\u2019s resistance and persistence in the face of these \u201ccrushing sanctions.\u201d With years of experience in withstanding sanctions, Iran also has a diversified economy. Iran\u2019s basket of goods relies on manufacturing products such as automobiles, metal, and plastic, accounting for one-fifth of the country\u2019s employment. Also, the food and consumer products have remained unaffected by sanctions. However, most importantly, it is the informal payment mechanism that is kept the country afloat. This, coupled with strong regional relationships for trade and barter deals, has allowed Iran to dodge the sanctions bullet.
\nNow Russia-Ukraine war truly is a blessing for Iran, which is again in this sentence in the energy conversation. And this time, for all the right reasons. As the Europe energy crisis becomes a reality, the need to look for alternatives is forging an interesting Nexus between the US, Iran and Europe \u2013 or the world thought so. In my opinion, the US and Europe\u2019s convenience at sanctioning and attempting to normalise relationships with Iran for its own needs speaks of the superficiality of things. But once again, as the world hoped Iran to react expectedly, it threw a tantrum no one saw coming. Iran\u2019s Mohammed Marandi, an advisor to Iran\u2019s negotiating team, commented, \u201cIran won\u2019t accept impact is in loopholes in the text. Winter is approaching, and Europe is facing a crippling energy crisis.\u201d
\nJoseph Borrel expressed his ill-confidence in the short-lived US-Iran romance by saying, \u201cI am sorry to say that I am less confident today than 48 hours ago.\u201d
\nWhile the US\u2019s response further confirmed Europe\u2019s nightmare. \u201cThe president will only conclude that he determines in the national security interest of the US,\u201d commented National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson.
\nAs this statement justifies a country\u2019s right to prioritise its national security, Iran\u2019s claims for a guarantee on lifting sanctions and resolution of safeguard issues also stand corrected.
\nOnce again, the Russian factor seems to play a critical role here. One must think that Iran\u2019s survival all these years must have kindled some spark between Russia and Iran. In recent news, we hear Iran\u2019s interest in purchasing the Russian SU-35 Flanker-E-Fighter Jet, its role in handing over the \u201cpeace initiative\u201d proposal by a senior European representative and most importantly, Iran\u2019s latest bid for non-competitive oil trade with Russia \u2013 the global arena may now slightly begin to understand the larger play at hand. If Iran and Russia agree to the benefits Iran\u2019s re-entry into the international oil market would have for both countries, that could very well be the final nail in the coffin for a US in Iran Nexus and a tragic end to Europe\u2019s energy alternatives.
\nAlso, since the re-entry would be the approval of the global powers, going back on its decision will change the international and regional alliances tremendously. I see a strong future relationship forging between China, Iran and Russia. A coalition that the US and its allies may have a really difficult time breaking through. And one that could open new economic possibilities for China and its allies, Pakistan included.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dr Hasnain Javed Only in 2022 alone, the global oil and gas exploration and production market grew by 27.5 per cent and is estimated to be a five trillion dollar industry For far too long, Iran has been seen in the light as an extremist Islamic state. In 1997, US-Iran relations turned for the worst […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[10586,1555,1227,444],"class_list":{"0":"post-282525","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-article","7":"tag-a-forged-nexus","8":"tag-dr-hasnain-javed","9":"tag-iran","10":"tag-us"},"yoast_head":"\n