Monitoring Desk
\nNew York
\nA mysterious reference on US television to an imminent Russia-Ukraine prisoner swap highlights Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan\u2019s unique role as mediator and friend of both sides in time of war.
\nErdogan flew to New York from a meeting in Uzbekistan with Russian President Vladimir Putin \u2014 his third in three months \u2014 to tell US viewers on Monday that the Kremlin \u201cis willing to end this (war) as soon as possible\u201d.
\n\u201cTwo hundred hostages will be exchanged upon agreement between the parties,\u201d Erdogan said in the interview without giving away further details. Putin\u2019s decision to partially call up reservists and raise the threat of nuclear warfare less than two days later appeared to lay Erdogan\u2019s best intentions to waste.
\nBut an announcement late Wednesday that Russia and Ukraine were exchanging some 200 prisoners helped to validate Erdogan\u2019s efforts to walk a fine line and stay \u201cneutral\u201d in Europe\u2019s bloodiest conflict since World War II.
\nThe prisoner swap adds to a growing list of diplomatic successes Erdogan is using to brandish his image as a global statesman nine months before an election that polls show he might conceivably lose.
\n\u201cTurkish diplomacy has been faultless since the start of the war,\u201d France\u2019s former US and UN ambassador Gerard Araud remarked. \u201cIt has evaluated its interests, found a balance between the warring parties and used firmness when necessary while taking advantage of the circumstance.\u201d
\nErdogan can now take credit for playing a direct role in orchestrating the only two tangible agreements between Moscow and Kyiv in the seven-month war. A UN-backed deal signed in Istanbul in July resumed Ukrainian grain deliveries across the Black Sea for the first time since Russia\u2019s February 24 invasion.
\nUN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the shipments \u201ca beacon of hope\u201d for famine-ravaged parts of the world. The prisoner swap features an arrangement to keep five Ukrainian commanders \u2014 including those defending the Azovstal steel plant from a Russian onslaught against Mariupol \u2014 stowed away in a secret location in Istanbul.
\nErdogan is also offering to help mediate in the ominous military standoff around Ukraine\u2019s Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
\nAnd he still hopes to bring Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky together for truce talks that neither side particularly wants \u2014 but which Turkish officials insist are both essential and realistic.
\n\u201cOf all states, Turkey is best placed to broker a deal between the two sides,\u201d said London-based political risk consultant Anthony Skinner.
\nErdogan has followed a deceivingly simple approach to the war: he has supplied Ukraine with weapons while using Moscow\u2019s diplomatic isolation to his advantage by dramatically cranking up trade with Russia.
\nTurkish combat drones have gained legendary status in Ukraine because they helped destroy the main Russian armoured columns that tried to seize Kyiv in the first weeks of the war.
\nAnd Russian trade and tourists have helped to keep Turkey\u2019s teetering economy from completely collapsing in the run-up to presidential and parliament polls in June.
\n\u201cPutin and Erdogan have dealt with each other for a long time and have, on balance, been able to manage their differences on a range of issues,\u201d Skinner said.
\n\u201cUkraine is no different. Kyiv has been frustrated by the Turkish government\u2019s failure to turn the screws on Moscow, but Ukraine also benefits immensely from Turkey\u2019s ongoing support in the conflict.\u201d
\nTurkey analyst Soner Cagaptay describes Erdogan\u2019s approach as \u201cpro-Ukrainian neutrality\u201d.
\n\u201cErdogan has tried to balance between being pro-Ukraine and avoiding an overtly anti-Russia stance,\u201d Cagaptay wrote in a report for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. But there are signs that Erdogan\u2019s policy has its limits.
\nHe concluded an August meeting with Putin by unveiling a broad economic cooperation agreement that switched a large part of Turkey\u2019s trade with Russia to rubles.
\nThe United States worries the deal will help Russia skirt sanctions that the West hopes will eventually compel Putin to stop the war.
\nThe US Treasury told Turkish banks and businesses dealing closely with Russia that they were exposing themselves to \u201csecondary sanctions\u201d.
\nThe warning sparked a sharp selloff in the Turkish stock market last week.
\nTwo of the five Turkish bank processing ruble transactions through Russia\u2019s Mir payment systems supended such operations this week.
\nBut Skinner said Erdogan still needs Russian trade.
\n\u201cErdogan will not cut trade ties with Russia,\u201d he said. \u201cHe has many cards to play.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Monitoring Desk New York A mysterious reference on US television to an imminent Russia-Ukraine prisoner swap highlights Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan\u2019s unique role as mediator and friend of both sides in time of war. Erdogan flew to New York from a meeting in Uzbekistan with Russian President Vladimir Putin \u2014 his third in three […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":282421,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-285288","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"yoast_head":"\n