KYIV
\nRussia was pouring reinforcements into eastern Ukraine ahead of a possible new offensive, said a Ukrainian governor, but British intelligence said on Tuesday it was unlikely that Russia would have enough forces to significantly affect the war within weeks.
\nDesperate for Western military aid to arrive, Ukraine anticipates a major offensive could be launched by Russia for \u201csymbolic\u201d reasons around the Feb. 24 anniversary of the invasion, which Moscow persists in calling \u201ca special military operation.\u201d
\nUkraine is itself planning a spring offensive to recapture lost territory, but it is awaiting delivery of promised longer-range Western missiles and battle tanks, and some analysts say the country was months away from being ready.
\n\u201cWe are seeing more and more (Russian) reserves being deployed in our direction, we are seeing more equipment being brought in…,\u201d said Serhiy Haidai, Ukraine\u2019s governor of the mainly Russian-occupied Luhansk province.
\n\u201cThey bring ammunition that is used differently than before \u2014 it is not round-the-clock shelling anymore. They are slowly starting to save, getting ready for a full-scale offensive,\u201d Haidai told Ukrainian television. \u201cIt will most likely take them 10 days to gather reserves. After Feb. 15 we can expect (this offensive) at any time.\u201d
\nThe war is reaching a pivotal point as its first anniversary approaches, with Ukraine no longer making gains as it did in the second half of 2022 and Russia pushing forward with hundreds of thousands of mobilized reserve troops. Britain\u2019s Defense Intelligence said in its daily report that Russia\u2019s military has likely attempted since early January to restart major offensive operations aimed at capturing Ukraine-held parts of Donetsk. However, Russian forces have gained little territory as they \u201clack munitions and maneuver units required for a successful offensive,\u201d it said.
\n\u201cRussian leaders will likely continue to demand sweeping advances. It remains unlikely that Russia can buiild up the forces needed to substantially affect the outcome of the war within the coming weeks.\u201d
\nIn his Monday evening address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said personnel changes on the border and frontline will bolster Ukraine\u2019s military efforts amid uncertainty over the future of his defense minister, just as Russia advances in the east for the first time in six months.
\nZelensky said he wanted to combine military and managerial experience in local and central government but did not directly address confusion about whether his defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, would be replaced. On Sunday, David Arakhamia, head of Zelensky\u2019s parliamentary bloc, said Reznikov would be transferred to another ministerial job, but on Monday he wrote that \u201cthere will be no personnel changes in the defense sector this week.\u201d
\nZelensky says he needs to show that Ukraine was a safe steward of billions of dollars of Western military and other aid, and his government is engaged in the biggest political and administrative shake-up since Russia\u2019s invasion nearly a year ago.
\n\u201cIn a number of regions, particularly those on the border or on the front line, we will appoint leaders with military experience. Those who can show themselves to be the most effective in defending against existing threats,\u201d he said.
\nThe European Union said Zelensky has been invited to take part in a summit of EU leaders, amid reports he could be in Brussels as soon as this week, in what would be only his second known foreign trip since the invasion began.
\nZelensky\u2019s office did not respond to a request for comment.
\nNew Russian Offensive
\nUkraine\u2019s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told Ukrainska Pravda on the weekend that intelligence suggested any new Russian offensive would likely come from the east or south.
\n\u201cTheir dream is to expand the land corridor to Crimea in order to continue supplies. Therefore, of course, the key risks are: the east, the south, and after that the north,\u201d he said. Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014.
\nUkrainian defense analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said a new Russian offensive could come from one of four directions; the eastern Luhansk region, the Donetsk region, the Zaporizhzhia region and the city and port of Mariupol.
\n\u201cThings are more serious in Donetsk region, particularly around Bakhmut and Avdiivka. And the Russians will be boosting their contingents there as well as equipment and paratroops,\u201d Kovalenko, from the \u201cInformation Resistance group\u201d think tanks, told Ukrainian radio NV.
\nFor months Russia\u2019s main target in eastern Ukraine has been Bakhmut, where its state media said the Wagner mercenary group had gained a foothold. Ukraine said on Monday evening that Russian forces had trained tank, mortar and artillery fire there in the past 24 hours.
\nKovalenko said Mariupol, captured by Russian forces last May, could be used by the Russians to bring in troops and equipment for a new offensive.
\n\u201cIt could serve as a transport hub for the Russian occupation forces,\u201d he said.
\nKovalenko said Ukraine\u2019s counter-offensive would not happen any time soon and Ukrainian forces would be assuming a defensive position, particularly in Donetsk.
\n\u201cIt may be an active defense, but a defensive position nonetheless. The idea will remain to block any Russian advance,\u201d he said.
\n\u201cThings could change more quickly in other sectors. But this situation could go on for two to two-and-a-half months \u2014 that is the time required for providing the tanks for brigades, training and getting everything outfitted.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
KYIV Russia was pouring reinforcements into eastern Ukraine ahead of a possible new offensive, said a Ukrainian governor, but British intelligence said on Tuesday it was unlikely that Russia would have enough forces to significantly affect the war within weeks. Desperate for Western military aid to arrive, Ukraine anticipates a major offensive could be launched […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":312400,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-312362","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"yoast_head":"\n