Malaika Afridi<\/p>\n
\u201cBut if the Chinese mainland, the PRC, attacked Taiwan, we\u2019d be obligated to come to their aid.\u201d- Fred Thompson
\nThe upcoming presidential election in Taiwan is a critical event in the island\u2019s history with significant implications for Taiwan, China, and the United States. The outcome of the elections could significantly impact Taiwan\u2019s sovereignty, leading to its stability or vulnerability. It may also trigger a conflict with China or steer Taiwan toward becoming a part of its neighbour. On January 13, 2024, Taiwan will hold its eighth direct presidential election. The three parties contesting elections are the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), and Taiwan\u2019s People\u2019s Party (TPP), a newcomer to politics. The DPP originated from a pro-democracy movement led by the KMT that aimed to end Taiwan\u2019s one-party dictatorship. The DPP has selected Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan\u2019s former envoy in the US, as William Lai\u2019s running mate.
\nOn the other hand, the KMT selected Jaw Shaw-Kong, a well-known pro-China media figure, as Hou Yu-ih\u2019s running mate. The United States will be keeping a close eye on Taiwan\u2019s elections as it will once again highlight Beijing\u2019s policies toward the self-ruled island it claims as its own. As a result, this paper aims to evaluate how these elections can influence the behaviour of the US and China.
\nTaiwan holds a crucial strategic position between China and significant US allies. If China gains physical control over Taiwan, it will create a geographical barrier between the US allies and provide access to the open ocean. This would also prevent counterforces from using Taiwan as a military staging ground in the region. China has always considered Taiwan as its own island and hopes to reunify its historical territory. The seizure of Hong Kong has highlighted Beijing\u2019s commitment to reunification; hence, China does not view the elections positively. The head of China\u2019s Taiwan Affairs Office referred to the Taiwan election as a \u201cchoice between war and peace.\u201d At the same time, the country\u2019s top military official issued a warning, saying that China will not show mercy to anyone who supports Taiwan\u2019s independence. Jennifer Staats highlights that China has attempted to interfere in the election by spreading misinformation that erodes the public trust in the Taiwanese government and creates doubt about the legitimacy of the United States\u2019 support for Taiwan. Additionally, China is pushing the narrative that both the United States and Taiwan are engaging in destabilizing behaviour.
\nProtecting the United States from Chinese practices has been the top priority regarding security, economy, and governance. Robert Stutters notes that China\u2019s undermining of the US power in Asia and Beijing\u2019s striving to establish its dominance in high-tech industries threaten the national security of the US. Taiwan\u2019s high-tech sector, which is critical in US economic competition with Beijing. Its political democracy, free market economy, and adherence to international norms support American leaders in addressing China\u2019s challenges. Thus, Taiwan could strengthen the US position in the Asia-Pacific by acting as a proxy and containing China\u2019s rapid economic growth.
\nAccording to Stutter, there will be continuity in US policy towards Taiwan and China irrespective of who wins the election due to the strong will in the US to confront the serious challenges China poses. Thus, Taiwan is critical in addressing these challenges and opposing China\u2019s aspirations. Taiwan also holds strategic importance to the joint defence of the US and its democratic allies. It plays a crucial role in the Indo-Pacific region that is highly valued by US policymakers seeking to counter China\u2019s aggressive moves. Stutter asserts that the US government has been strengthening its military and diplomatic support for Taiwan as a result of Beijing\u2019s intense economic, diplomatic, and military pressure on the island nation.
\nMoreover, at this pivotal time, the election will define Taiwan\u2019s foreign policy, especially concerning its relationship with China. Rosie Levine claims that a DPP victory is likely to strengthen Taiwan\u2019s ties with the United States and other democracies but still may increase tensions with China, given China\u2019s reluctance to cooperate with the DPP. On the other hand, if KMT wins, it could complicate the US-Taiwan relationship if Taiwan attempts to build closer ties with China amid ongoing US-China tensions. Similarly, different challenges and opportunities may arise based on the election\u2019s outcome, which the US is ready to address, and as Rory Daniels claims, the US would consider strategies to prevent any Chinese military retaliation by sending \u201cappropriate political signals.\u201d The US is legally obligated to provide Taiwan with means for defence, making it Taiwan\u2019s most important international supporter. Therefore, DPP\u2019s victory could increase the distance between Taiwan and Beijing, as the latter has accused Taiwan of advocating for independence and risking conflict.
\nAs mentioned previously, Taiwan is significant to both the US and China. China continues to push for Taiwan\u2019s reunification and is not likely to opt for a peaceful reunification. Taiwan\u2019s strategic location is crucial for China\u2019s power projection in the South China Sea. By controlling Taiwan, China secures its national defence, international trade, and a base of operations for expansion. Taiwan\u2019s democratic future faces a potential threat posed by China, especially with the seizure of Hong Kong in view. However, it is also important to note that, unlike Hong Kong, Taiwan has the support of the US, which complicates the situation. Therefore, elections could escalate tensions between the US and China, and the newly elected leadership will encounter challenges.<\/p>\n
The writer is a freelance columnist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Malaika Afridi \u201cBut if the Chinese mainland, the PRC, attacked Taiwan, we\u2019d be obligated to come to their aid.\u201d- Fred Thompson The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan is a critical event in the island\u2019s history with significant implications for Taiwan, China, and the United States. The outcome of the elections could significantly impact Taiwan\u2019s sovereignty, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[13236],"class_list":{"0":"post-379595","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-article","7":"tag-malaika-afridi"},"yoast_head":"\n