Dr Qaisar Rashid<\/p>\n
Hardly had the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued the second tranche of $700 million to Pakistan, when Iran showered a cer\u00adtain area of Panjgur District (Balu\u00adchistan) with missiles on Janu\u00adary 16. Iran called it a surgical strike against the terrorist groups which had sought ref\u00aduge in Punjgur but which had been functioning against Iran\u2019s integrity. Pakistan called it an unprovoked and unjustified attack, which prompted Pakistan to retaliate to level the score on January 18.
\nPakistan is a cash-strapped coun\u00adtry looking for avenues to earn mon\u00adey or secure funds. If the Revolutionary Guards of Iran have to conduct mili\u00adtary exercises along the shared bor\u00adder to impress or intimidate Pakistan, the latter may reciprocate. The cost of mere vigilance would put an unneces\u00adsary strain on defence expenditures. Along with that, if the quiescent phase of the Tehreke Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is turned into an active one, Pakistan would be in financial distress. It is dif\u00adficult to contemplate that the TTP does not take advantage of the situation. Though Pakistan is capable of manag\u00ading (or defending) both Pak-Iran and Pak-Afghan borders militarily, funds would be drained and attention would be diverted. The economic ease which reached Pakistan through the IMF would dissipate swiftly.
\nHolding general elections slated for February 8 is imperative to bring in a newly elected government which would negotiate the third tranche of $1.1 billion with the IMF in early March. The immediate concern of the new gov\u00adernment would be to make the bud\u00adget for the Financial Year (FY) 2024-25. For that matter, from March to June, the government would have to do three main things: first, privatize the select\u00aded underperforming debt-incurring government-run organizations; sec\u00adond, reform the national tax machin\u00adery to make it collection efficient; and third, impose new taxes on the hither\u00adto untouchable areas of the economy to broaden the tax base. Without un\u00addertaking these steps, the IMF cannot be pleased to continue with supporting Pakistan financially for the FY 2024-25, and afterwards.
\nPakistan must be repenting on the timing of the Iranian missiles\u2019 strike, which provoked Pakistan to launch a counter-strike. The edge of a precipice on which Pakistan is perched is that any escalation of conflict \u2013 most prob\u00adably on the western border \u2013 would consume the economy. Moreover, the conflict would vitiate the atmosphere in which foreign investment could be possible, whether or not in the field of agriculture (corporate farming). The challenge is graver than that. Where\u00adas the general elections are approach\u00ading fast, Pakistan\u2019s western border is gaining traction to decide if the elec\u00adtions would take place on the due date of February 8 or not.
\nNevertheless, the incipient Pak-Iran conflict, though limited to mis\u00adsile strikes only, has brought the issue of Baloch missing persons to the cen\u00adter stage of the international media. In chilling cold, Baloch women and chil\u00addren have been staging a sit-in in front of the Islamabad Press Club to retrieve their beloved ones from the clutches of the state. The sit-in would have been disposed of, if Riina Kionka (Ambassa\u00addor of the European Union to Pakistan) had not expressed her concern (on De\u00adcember 22, 2023) over manhandling the Baloch protestors. Pakistan has yet to learn how to respect human rights. The state refuses to drop coercion.
\nOn the other hand, exchanging mis\u00adsiles to destroy militant hideouts sim\u00adply means two things: first, both Iran and Pakistan acknowledge that they have been enduring a separatist move\u00adment revolving around Baloch dissi\u00addents; second, both countries acknowl\u00adedge that they clandestinely harbor Baloch separatist militants fled from each other. In other words, the missile exchange offers an expose.
\nEven if the calm prevails over the Pak-Iran border, both countries would take measures to purge their areas of the hideouts of militants launching terror\u00adist strikes across the border. It simply means that Iran would be taking action in its Sistan-Balochistan, and Pakistan would be cleansing its Balochistan. It also means more defence expenditures.
\nThe missile exchange submerged another crises which Pakistan is go\u00ading to face in the wake of the gener\u00adal elections of February 8. A large po\u00adlitical party (Pakistan Tehreke Insaf), which made the government after the last general elections in 2013, has lost its electoral symbol. Its members are now contesting the forthcoming gen\u00aderal elections without a unified par\u00adty symbol. With that, the seeds of dis\u00adcontentment have been sown. It simply means that after the elections, society would remain awash with a number of discontented citizens.
\nDiscontentment in society is bound to do two things: First, discontent would influence the economy by infusing un\u00adcertainty into the future, especially jeopardizing the prospects for foreign direct investment; and second, discon\u00adtent would turn any financial stum\u00adble into an upheaval (such as protest strikes against privatization, tax impo\u00adsition, and price hike) in society. This kind of era of instability may be evident immediately after March, when the IMF would be unsparing, while the compul\u00adsion to make a taxation-laden budget would be immense.
\nThe caveat is that, as per Moody\u2019s Investors Service, for the ongoing FY 2023-24, to fund external payment obli\u00adgations, \u201cPakistan has about $25-26 bil\u00adlion worth of external debt repayments (including interest payments).\u201d More\u00adover, Pakistan needs the same amount to service external payments for at least the next two financial years. That is, on average, Pakistan has to service the loan of around $2 billion a month.
\nRefusing to concede this huge finan\u00adcial liability, Pakistan has got entangled in the region (though unwillingly with Iran), and in the domestic scene (though Pakistan can mollify the Baloch (wom\u00aden) protestors demonstrating in Islam\u00adabad, and Pakistan can ensure that no political party is contesting the upcom\u00ading general elections without having its desired electoral symbol allotted.)<\/p>\n
The writer is a freelance columnist. He can be reached at qaisarrashid@yahoo.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dr Qaisar Rashid Hardly had the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued the second tranche of $700 million to Pakistan, when Iran showered a cer\u00adtain area of Panjgur District (Balu\u00adchistan) with missiles on Janu\u00adary 16. Iran called it a surgical strike against the terrorist groups which had sought ref\u00aduge in Punjgur but which had been functioning […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[1683],"class_list":{"0":"post-382028","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-article","7":"tag-dr-qaisar-rashid"},"yoast_head":"\n