Dr Qaisar Rashid<\/p>\n
Whereas Pakistan\u2019s new gov\u00adernment grapples with the challenge of how to discipline the country economically, the Interna\u00adtional Monetary Fund (IMF) strug\u00adgles with the challenge of how to recover its invested money with interest from Pakistan. Both parties find each oth\u00ader enigmatic and stubborn si\u00admultaneously.
\nFamiliarity breeds contempt. Pakistan tended to enter into an agreement with the IMF and then vi\u00adolate the same with impunity just be\u00adcause the lenders supporting the IMF were utilizing Pakistan\u2019s regional geo-strategic services. However, after Au\u00adgust 2021 (when foreign forces va\u00adcated Afghanistan to mark the end of the 2001-2021 war against terrorism which consumed billions of dollars), the IMF restored its face of coming down hard on Pakistan, which had cel\u00adebrated the event of vacating Afghani\u00adstan over a cup of tea in Kabul in Sep\u00adtember 2021. Pakistan has been paying the price of the cup.
\nPakistan\u2019s habit of overstretching its limits is getting back to haunt its econ\u00adomy. The IMF is now unpitying, as ac\u00adknowledged by Shahbaz Sharif in his previous tenure of premiership. This time would be no different. Sponsors of the IMF do not see eye to eye with Pakistan, which stands almost isolat\u00aded regionally. Pakistan has been re\u00adduced to using personal contacts of its citizens to secure loans from certain friendly countries to run its economic affairs. Now persons matter more than the country per se.
\nThe immediate concern of Pakistan\u2019s nascent government is to negotiate with the IMF to ensure the release of the third tranche amounting to $1.1 bil\u00adlion. The talks for getting any Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the IMF will start afterwards, probably in the middle of April \u2013 after the successful comple\u00adtion of the ongoing Standby Agreement.
\nTherein lies the catch. Pakistan has to complete the current Standby Agree\u00adment successfully to reach the goal of asking for an EFF. It also means that the review of the second tranche, which is around the corner, should be success\u00adful to issue the third tranche. Current\u00adly, there are no talks taking place on the EFF. The media must understand this point, instead of generating any hype.
\nThe Pakistanis revel in the delu\u00adsion that the IMF team just look at the accountancy books and not out\u00adside the offices in Pakistan to see how the markets are bustling with activi\u00adty, restaurants are full with customers for succulent cuisines, plazas are re\u00adplete with imported goods, pizza de\u00adliveries are pervasive to serve urbani\u00adties till late night, and luxury cars and four-wheeler jeeps with tinted glass\u00ades are plied on the roads. Do they present any picture of a poor country stressed to avoid sovereign default on external payments?
\nThrow a glance out of the window and see the kind of vehicles govern\u00adment officials travel in, the kind of protocols the judges enjoy, and the kind of security the elected represen\u00adtatives utilize. Visit any urban city at night and see how people light their houses and shops, and how much peo\u00adple spend on functions and weddings. Do they present any picture of a near-bankrupt country?
\nOld habits die hard, so is old think\u00ading. The Pakistanis are still waiting for a miracle to appear on the hori\u00adzon from nowhere to rescue the coun\u00adtry financially. Pakistan needs a rain of dollars. Tyranny is that neither Ukraine nor Gaza falls under the much touted geo-strategic ambit of Paki\u00adstan. This is why Pakistan\u2019s Cold-War machinery stands almost idle. Never\u00adtheless, it remained the success of the machinery to extend the bounty of the Cold War from 1991 to 2021. Where\u00adas the world celebrated the end of the Cold War in December 1991, Pakistan had to do the same though reluctant\u00adly in August 2021. Afterwards, a real\u00adity dawned on Pakistan to survive on its own without any reward coming along. The year of 2021 marked the end of foreign financial aid.
\nPakistan still refuses to drop the sta\u00adtus of a client state, meant for serving the war needs of the West. Rumours bandied about Pakistan\u2019s selling ar\u00adtillery shells to certain international firms (a third party) to support Ukraine (against Russia) are known. The order was a silver lining in the otherwise dark cloud. Silver lining because the IMF lis\u00adtened to Pakistan\u2019s entreaties for finan\u00adcial help after Pakistan sold the shells worth $364 million as a tool provider in August 2022. The shells made the dif\u00adference in softening the IMF. Obversely, the IMF tightened the screw to get the ammunition out of Pakistan.
\nOn balance, factors favouring Paki\u00adstan\u2019s utility in any war are getting few\u00ader than Pakistan\u2019s utility in global peace efforts. At least, the region expressing geo-strategic location defies Pakistan, as there is no war in the region. Paki\u00adstan\u2019s Cold-War machinery is rusting, so is the Cold-War mentality.
\nMid-March would witness Paki\u00adstan\u2019s entering into negotiations with the IMF for securing the third tranche. Before that, to appease the IMF, Pak\u00adistan\u2019s newly elected assembly will have to give a nod to privatization, be\u00adsides enacting certain laws on facili\u00adtating taxation and reforming the tax machinery. New currency notes may see daylight. The policy of issuing cir\u00adculars to give exemptions to certain sectors would receive a snub. With that, a spur of structural reform would begin hurtling Pakistan into the direc\u00adtion of self-sustenance. Moreover, a mini-budget would be generated, re\u00adflecting the kind of future awaiting Pakistan. The IMF is not blind. Only after passing this phase would make Pakistan eligible for requesting the EFF from the IMF.<\/p>\n
The writer is a freelance columnist. He can be reached at qaisarrashid@yahoo.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dr Qaisar Rashid Whereas Pakistan\u2019s new gov\u00adernment grapples with the challenge of how to discipline the country economically, the Interna\u00adtional Monetary Fund (IMF) strug\u00adgles with the challenge of how to recover its invested money with interest from Pakistan. Both parties find each oth\u00ader enigmatic and stubborn si\u00admultaneously. Familiarity breeds contempt. Pakistan tended to enter into […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[1683],"class_list":{"0":"post-392802","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-article","7":"tag-dr-qaisar-rashid"},"yoast_head":"\n