Sher Ali Bukhari<\/p>\n
Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine began on 24th February 2022 and was labelled by Russia as a \u201cSpecial Military Operation\u201d. This shocked the en\u00adtire world, especially the West: The old wounds of West-Russia rival\u00adry began to resurface again in the heartland of Europe. And the world holds its breath for a longer military confrontation between the West and Russia in the theatre of Ukraine.
\nExperts are divided into two camps for reasoning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On one hand, convention\u00adal wisdom and liberals opined that Pu\u00adtin has embarked on creating \u201cGreat\u00ader Russia\u201d and the Ukraine invasion is the first line of conquest for him. Af\u00adter occupying Ukraine, President Putin would expand its imperialist tenden\u00adcies towards later parts of Europe, es\u00adpecially Eastern Europe.
\nOn the other hand, well-known Pro\u00adfessor John Mearsheimer opined that Russia was provoked by the West which prompted the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He mainly blamed the Western policy of NATO expansion that height\u00adened the security concerns of Russia. The inclusion of Ukraine into NATO is the biggest red line for Russia. He also outlined the expansion of the EU and the color revolution in Ukraine that forced the early departure of the pro-Moscow regime in Ukraine in 2014.
\nDespite the divergence of explanation of Russian actions in Ukraine, the official narrative of the Kremlin is the non-entry of Ukraine into NATO and the rollback of NATO expansion from Eastern Europe and Baltic states. Furthermore, in a long op-ed piece by President Putin \u201cOn the historical unity of Russians and Ukraini\u00adans\u201d (2021), he viewed that Russia and Ukraine are one state and one people. However, despite Russian concerns, the West undertook the opposite approach: not to engage Russia on its terms.
\nDuring the first year of year, Western and Ukrainian resolute were firm and hard to oppose Russian measures of ex\u00adpansionism. West, mainly Europe and the USA, provided much political, eco\u00adnomic, diplomatic, and military sup\u00adport to Ukraine. Furthermore, econom\u00adic sanctions were imposed on Russia to hamstring its military campaign in Ukraine. Owing to these hard realities, Russia could not bring Ukraine down to its knees as the latter was able to defend itself from the formidable superior mili\u00adtary might of Russia.
\nHowever, with the passage of months and the entering of the war in the sec\u00adond year, it is crystal clear that Ukraine has become a \u201cWar of attrition\u201d. Russia is able to hold 20pc of Ukrainian territory in eastern parts of Ukraine, where ethnic Russians are in the majority, and formal\u00adly incorporate these regions into the Rus\u00adsian part. On the economic front, Russia has emerged stronger as its economy is bouncing back to 4.4pc in the fiscal year of 2024, despite colossal economic sanc\u00adtions on the Russian economy. Further\u00admore, the much-hyped Ukraine\u2019s coun\u00adter-offensive to take back the eastern part of Ukraine from Russia also backfired.
\nAgainst that backdrop, President Pu\u00adtin has appeared confident in Ukraine for further projections of his objectives in the Ukraine war. During a press con\u00adference, he claimed that Russia is des\u00adtined to win Ukraine\u2019s war as its surviv\u00adal is closely attached to it. Furthermore, President Putin received 87pc of the votes for scoring their fifth term as pres\u00adident, showing the renewed trust and confidence of the Russian people in him, especially due to his resolute in resisting Western measures in Ukraine.
\nOutside of Ukraine, Europe has been di\u00advided about the inclusion of Ukraine into NATO. Additionally, owing to the long du\u00adration of the war, economic commitment by Europe to Ukraine also appears to be weakened as many European countries witness economic recession, inflation, and unemployment at home. Outside of Europe, the support for Ukraine is al\u00adready dim and the Global South appears to be more sympathetic to Russia\u2019s con\u00adcerns about the West. China and India, emerging economic houses of the world, have already backed Russia in direct and indirect manner in the Ukraine war.
\nMeanwhile, since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Pakistan has undertaken a principled position on the conflict. The country has taken a neutral position in the Ukraine war, avoiding any provoca\u00adtion from the West and Russia. For that context, Pakistan has abstained from the resolutions regarding the Ukraine war, a clear message of non-aligned foreign policy. In that way, Pakistan has been able to maintain a robust relationship with both the West and Russia because of its strategic importance to Pakistan.
\nApart from that, the prospects for Ukraine are also getting dim and grim due to the changing domestic situa\u00adtion of the USA. Republicans are show\u00ading low concerns for Ukrainian support and blocking any economic package for Ukraine in the US Congress. Further\u00admore, experts viewed that the chanc\u00ades of Trump winning are brighter which causes alarm bells in Kyiv. President Trump is particularly hostile to Ukraini\u00adan support and made many statements about renouncing economic and mili\u00adtary aid to Ukraine. So, experts viewed that the possible upcoming presidency of Trump would abandon Ukraine.
\nAt home, enthusiasm about confront\u00ading Russia is getting dim in Ukraine. Ukraine\u2019s people are appearing tired of fighting a war for the West against Rus\u00adsia that caused the loss of thousands of people, infrastructure and economic loss. Many Ukrainians also blamed Pres\u00adident Zelensky for acting as a puppet in the hands of the West, which brought much damage to its country and people for playing in the hands of the West.
\nIn a nutshell, the future of war in the support of Ukraine is dim. It appears that Ukraine is losing both battlefield and diplomatic offence against mighty Russia. In the absence of European and American support, Ukraine will not be able to stand before Russia and will lose more territory. Furthermore, as the do\u00admestic situation in Europe and the USA has changed, the future of Ukraine will hang in balance. On the country, Russia has emerged as a victorious and great power after the Ukrainian invasion as its status elevated before Global South. The USA\u2019s strategy of containing Russia in the Ukraine war has also backfired. One vital lesson for Ukraine: don\u2019t put fire in your own house for the sake of the West.
\nThe writer is a UET alumni with keen interest in Pakistan\u2019s foreign policy<\/p>\n
Courtesy<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sher Ali Bukhari Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine began on 24th February 2022 and was labelled by Russia as a \u201cSpecial Military Operation\u201d. This shocked the en\u00adtire world, especially the West: The old wounds of West-Russia rival\u00adry began to resurface again in the heartland of Europe. And the world holds its breath for a longer military […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[13343],"class_list":{"0":"post-397644","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-article","7":"tag-sher-ali-bukhari"},"yoast_head":"\n