Brig (Retd) Yasin<\/p>\n
In our childhood days, we would listen to the fables of U\u2019dan Tashtari (flying saucer) which used to be a magical phenomenon full of mystery and adventures. It seems that the flying saucer has now landed in the form of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). It is not less than a seismic transformation.
\nDays are not far-off when these vehicles will be produced in factories across the world at a large-scale. The AVs are now maturing for doing tasks like steering, breaking, and acceleration. They will replace human drivers in navigation precluding road accidents from being happened besides responding to traffic hazards and mismanagement.
\nThough Artificial Intelligence (AI), sensors and radars have been used in the production of driverless cars, it is something unbelievable to listen about them. AI is simultaneously overpowering the human intelligence. No one knows what would happen in the next couple of decades. However, it is a fact that so far driverless cars are not fully autonomous.
\nIn the next stage, Artificial Intelligence (AI) will take on driving, so the human driver will take over as and when needed. As the development gathers momentum, AI will be in complete control, but the operation will be limited to the roads or other places whose data has been entered into the system. The final stage would perhaps take another 10 to 15 years when AI will have its full control over systems and there would be no human involvement.
\nSuch fully autonomous vehicles (FAVs) will be able to navigate all roads and places. However, reaching the final stage, which the developers call L5, seems to be an uphill task because AI will have to be trained on an immense amount of information and data pertaining to all roads, places, and environmental implications. At present, it seems very difficult to include all combinations and permutations of different environments, directions, weather conditions, fog, rain, etc.
\nIn order to ensure safe deployment of FAVs, safe infrastructure of roads (safe cities) where sensors and wireless communications are embedded into the roads so that they might interact with the FAVs and warn of the possible dangers. Even in such safe cities, there would be chances of jamming, manipulating or hacking the AI system by terrorists or dangers imposed by natural disasters.
\nExperts believe that driverless vehicles are vulnerable to cyberattacks. Since they rely on advanced computer software, they are open to hackers, they say. For such possibilities, communications will have to be upgraded to 6G systems. As AI evolves further, the safety factor would also have to increase. For example, the FAVs would be able to communicate with one another. In case of any emergency, the affected vehicle would be able to ask for help from a nearby vehicle or the police.
\nWith a human driver, if an accident takes place, the driver is proceeded against. But how would the system work if an AI controlled vehicle causes an accident resulting in human casualties? With further advancement, perhaps the FAV would have recorded the circumstances which could be played in a court of law dealing with the case. However, the future of FAV is not very clear rather it will take more time to make driverless cars safe and sound.
\nA serious accident involving a human driver may not be widely reported by the media, but any accident by a driverless car would be reposted worldwide. (BBC)
\nPutting the FAVs on roads would be very challenging. First of all, it requires to develop smart cities to leverage advanced technology for reducing traffic congestions. Secondly, operating FAVs in such cities would be less susceptible to accidents because smart cities will have updated roadways with advanced technologies. Such integration would require a regulatory framework to support the FAVs. The traffic management system will have to be regularly updated for the smooth flow of traffic. Initially, dedicated lanes will be built for FAVs. Most importantly, for the smooth transition to such a system, the public will have to be prepared to accept the change and believe that travelling in FAVs is safe.
\nAccording to James Clayton, the BBC Technology Reporter, in 2022, the Robo-Taxi Firm was permitted to run fully driverless taxis at night. Initially, people were surprised seeing these taxis navigating roads in San Francisco during fog at night. These taxis racked more than two million miles of driverless journey. Data showed that these cars had fewer accidents as compared to those with human drivers. The Firm had planned to expand the service in other cities. Unfortunately, in October 2023, there was a horrifying accident in which a woman was dragged underneath the driverless taxi for around 20 yards (she survived). Thereafter, the company grounded its driverless cars, and it never recovered.
\nA serious accident involving a human driver may not be widely reported by the media, but any accidents by a driverless car would be reposted worldwide. People then would be afraid of travelling in FAVs. However, the above accident did not put an end to driverless vehicles and some other firms also committed to putting FAVs on roads. Incidentally, the US President-elect Donald Trump is said to be very fond of driverless vehicles, and he might ease the regulatory framework.
\nDespite risks and challenges, the development of FAVs is going on. Keeping in view the issues relating to technical and regulatory matters, there is a need to devise an international regulatory framework under the umbrella of the United Nations. The UN Economic Commission for Europe has set up rules for FAVs that are likely to be announced by 2026. The main stakeholders in efforts to develop regulatory frameworks for FAVs are China, Japan, the EU, and the US.
\ninternational regulatory framework on FAVs needs to be devised under the umbrella of the United Nations with major stakeholders on board.
\nAccording to reports, robo-taxis are now operating in San Francisco and Dallas by GM\u2019s Cruise. Self-driving trucks and delivery robots are undergoing various tests before they are put on roads. Similarly, work is going on to resolve regulatory issues and develop comprehensive guidelines for human operators and for safety.
\nDevelopment of FAVs needs billions of dollar investment, which is the major cause of slowing down the progress. Estimates show that it may take another 20 years before we see fully driverless transport on roads, which would have public trust and guaranteed safety.<\/p>\n
The writer is a Senior Advisor Emeritus at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute Islamabad.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brig (Retd) Yasin In our childhood days, we would listen to the fables of U\u2019dan Tashtari (flying saucer) which used to be a magical phenomenon full of mystery and adventures. It seems that the flying saucer has now landed in the form of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). It is not less than a seismic transformation. Days […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[13569],"class_list":{"0":"post-458422","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-article","7":"tag-brig-retd-yasin"},"yoast_head":"\n