LONDON: Five years ago Friday, two crowds of people gathered near Britain\u2019s Parliament \u2014 some with Union Jacks and cheers, others European Union flags and tears.
\nOn Jan. 31, 2020 at 11 p.m. London time \u2013 midnight at EU headquarters in Brussels \u2014 the UK officially left the bloc after almost five decades of membership that had brought free movement and free trade between Britain and 27 other European countries.
\nFor Brexit supporters, the UK was now a sovereign nation in charge of its own destiny. For opponents, it was an isolated and diminished country.
\nIt was, inarguably, a divided nation that had taken a leap into the dark. Five years on, people and businesses are still wrestling with the economic, social and cultural aftershocks.
\n\u201cThe impact has been really quite profound,\u201d said political scientist Anand Menon, who heads the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe. \u201cIt\u2019s changed our economy.
\n\u201cAnd our politics has been changed quite fundamentally as well,\u201d he added. \u201cWe\u2019ve seen a new division around Brexit becoming part of electoral politics.\u201d
\nA decision that split the nation
\nAn island nation with a robust sense of its historical importance, Britain had long been an uneasy member of the EU when it held a referendum in June 2016 on whether to remain or leave. Decades of deindustrialization, followed by years of public spending cuts and high immigration, made fertile ground for the argument that Brexit would let the UK \u201ctake back control\u201d of its borders, laws and economy.
\nYet the result \u2014 52 percent to 48 percent in favor of leaving \u2014 came as a shock to many. Neither the Conservative government, which campaigned to stay in the EU, nor pro-Brexit campaigners had planned for the messy details of the split.
\nThe referendum was followed by years of wrangling over divorce terms between a wounded EU and a fractious UK that caused gridlock in Parliament and ultimately defeated Prime Minister Theresa May. She resigned in 2019 and was replaced by Boris Johnson, who vowed to \u201cget Brexit done.\u201d
\nIt wasn\u2019t so simple.
\nA blow to the British economy
\nThe UK left without agreement on its future economic relationship with the EU, which accounted for half the country\u2019s trade. The political departure was followed by 11 months of testy negotiations on divorce terms, culminating in agreement on Christmas Eve in 2020.
\nThe bare-bones trade deal saw the UK leave the bloc\u2019s single market and customs union. It meant goods could move without tariffs or quotas, but brought new red tape, costs and delays for trading businesses.
\n\u201cIt has cost us money. We are definitely slower and it\u2019s more expensive. But we\u2019ve survived,\u201d said Lars Andersen, whose London-based company, My Nametags, ships brightly colored labels for kids\u2019 clothes and school supplies to more than 150 countries.
\nTo keep trading with the EU, Andersen has had to set up a base in Ireland, through which all orders destined for EU countries must pass before being sent on. He says the hassle has been worth it, but some other small businesses he knows have stopped trading with the EU or moved manufacturing out of the UK
\nJulianne Ponan, founder and CEO of allergen-free food producer Creative Nature, had a growing export business to EU countries that was devastated by Brexit. Since then she has successfully turned to markets in the Middle East and Australia, something she says has been a positive outcome of leaving the EU.
\nHaving mastered the new red tape, she is now gradually building up business with Europe again.
\n\u201cBut we\u2019ve lost four years of growth there,\u201d she said. \u201cAnd that\u2019s the sad part. We would be a lot further ahead in our journey if Brexit hadn\u2019t happened.\u201d
\nThe government\u2019s Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that UK exports and imports will both be around 15 percent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU, and economic productivity 4 percent less than it otherwise would have been.
\nBrexit supporters argue that short-term pain will be offset by Britain\u2019s new freedom to strike trade deals around the world. Since Brexit. the UK has signed trade agreements with countries including Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
\nBut David Henig, a trade expert at the European Center for International Political Economy, said they have not offset the hit to trade with Britain\u2019s nearest neighbors.
\n\u201cThe big players aren\u2019t so much affected,\u201d Henig said. \u201cWe still have Airbus, we still have Scotch whisky. We still do defense, big pharmaceuticals. But the mid-size players are really struggling to keep their exporting position. And nobody new is coming in to set up.\u201d
\nA lesson in unintended consequences
\nIn some ways, Brexit has not played out as either supporters or opponents anticipated. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine piled on more economic disruption, and made it harder to discern the impact of Britain\u2019s EU exit on the economy.
\nIn one key area, immigration, Brexit\u2019s impact has been the opposite of what many predicted. A desire to reduce immigration was a major reason many people voted to leave the EU, yet immigration today is far higher than before Brexit because the number of visas granted for workers from around the world has soared.
\nMeanwhile, the rise of protectionist political leaders, especially newly returned US President Donald Trump, has raised the stakes for Britain, now caught between its near neighbors in Europe and its trans-Atlantic \u201cspecial relationship\u201d with the US
\n\u201cThe world is a far less forgiving place now than it was in 2016 when we voted to leave,\u201d Menon said.
\nCan Britain and the EU be friends again?
\nPolls suggest UK public opinion has soured on Brexit, with a majority of people now thinking it was a mistake. But rejoining seems a distant prospect. With memories of arguments and division still raw, few people want to go through all that again.
\nLabour Party Prime Minister Keir Starmer, elected in July 2024, has promised to \u201creset\u201d relations with the EU, but has ruled out rejoining the customs union or single market. He\u2019s aiming for relatively modest changes such as a making it easier for artists to tour and for professionals to have their qualifications recognized, as well as on closer cooperation on law enforcement and security.
\nEU leaders have welcomed the change of tone from Britain, but have problems of their own amid growing populism across the continent. The UK is no longer a top priority.
\n\u201cI completely understand, it\u2019s difficult to get back together after quite a harsh divorce,\u201d said Andersen, who nonetheless hopes Britain and the EU will draw closer with time. \u201cI suspect it will happen, but it will happen slowly and subtly without politicians particularly shouting about it.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
LONDON: Five years ago Friday, two crowds of people gathered near Britain\u2019s Parliament \u2014 some with Union Jacks and cheers, others European Union flags and tears. On Jan. 31, 2020 at 11 p.m. London time \u2013 midnight at EU headquarters in Brussels \u2014 the UK officially left the bloc after almost five decades of membership […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":458712,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-458701","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"yoast_head":"\n