Saad Masood<\/p>\n
Say what you may about Donald Trump, he keeps things interesting! From signing a plethora of executive orders to planning to take over countries to fire federal employees and effectively shutting down USAID \u2013 all is par for the course, pun intended.
\nJust like in 2018, the second stint of President Donald Trump has kicked off what could only be described as a modern-day trade war Olympics. It is a competition where tariffs, and self-ridiculing explanations, are the weapons of choice and everyone and his dog is vying to become the \u201cbest in unpredictable economics\u201d. The main target? China, Canada, and Mexico are not all in the same league, I assure you. The result? An upcoming global economic rollercoaster that will affect everyone, even countries that are just silent spectators trying to enjoy their snacks on the sidelines before someone throws up on them. Enter: Pakistan.
\nLet\u2019s first look at the basics \u2013 why did Trump continue this trade war from where he left off in his first term? Well, like any good reality TV villain, he doesn\u2019t need reasons. But let\u2019s indulge ourselves and say that Trump believed China was playing too fast and too loose with trade rules, especially when it came to intellectual property and other questionable practices. In response, he decided to start slapping tariffs on Chinese goods like he was at a summer yard sale. For Canada and Mexico, Trump\u2019s official reason for pilling on the tariffs was to secure the borders to the North and South respectively. However, I believe he thinks Canada is that noisy Northernly neighbour whose house should be demolished and made part of the original mansion. No wonder he talks about Canada being the 51st state; deluded that notion as it may be.
\nThe idea behind this trade fight? \u201cBalancing the books\u201d for the American government. Not that Trump took that much care in balancing the books of his corporate empire. This again is part of the age-old American dream to bring back manufacturing jobs to US shores and Make America Great Again. The wheeler-dealer that he is, Trump\u2019s original motivation would have been to raise the stakes high enough to get substantial concessions from the other side subsequently. The ancient wisdom of the Sicilian Mafia comes to mind, \u201ca favour accepted is a favour owed\u201d!
\nWhile Canada and Mexico try to fall over each other to reach a lasting agreement with the White House, Trump still has China in his cross-hairs. Though, cross-hairs could mean other things to his stylist. When Trump collided with China in his first term, I had written that he had more to lose than China \u2013 he lost the next election. This time around, the American people may be about to pick the tab more than they did four years ago. China will certainly retaliate further, in due kind and in due time and all including Pakistan will be hurrying to avoid the \u201ctrade splash zone\u201d.
\nPakistan is already dealing with its own set of economic challenges. Add to that the unpredictability of global trade, a trigger-happy American President and a dice as loaded as the one in a Las Vegas casino and you get a sense of why Pakistan must feel like trying to keep its cool at a water park while the wave pool keeps knocking it over.
\nChina and Pakistan have been trade buddies for quite a while. They share a robust economic relationship, with China being Pakistan\u2019s largest source of imports and one of its major export destinations. As the US-China trade war intensifies, China\u2019s exports to the US may decline and it will want to fill that gap with other players. This isn\u2019t all bad news for Pakistan. As China\u2019s products become more expensive for American consumers, Pakistan will think \u201cMaybe we can slide into the empty spots in the market\u201d. Of course, China will also adapt quickly, turning to other countries to buy up its excess goods, leaving Pakistan to compete with everyone for the same limited markets. It will be akin to aiming for a seat at the cool kids\u2019 table \u2013 except everyone wants the same seat!
\nChina-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of the ingeniously named Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), may also suffer. While China focuses on its own trade issues, there won\u2019t be much space left for pushing the CPEC agenda further, deeper and quicker. Such a slowdown was also witnessed during Trump 1.0 taking on the Chinese goods market and it seems to be heading in the same direction with Trump 2.0.
\nIf walking the diplomatic tightrope between the US and China was a feat previously, then Pakistan will need to double its dexterity if it wishes to keep its existing relationships with both countries on a similar footing. If ever prayers were to get to angels and result in miracles \u2013 let this be it! Imagine being at a college ground and a fight breaks out between two of your classmates and suddenly you are just trying to figure out how not to antagonise both! That\u2019s Pakistan in a nutshell during the Trump-unleashed trade war. Nevertheless, Pakistan\u2019s close ties with China and US nexus with India would give a good hint as to which side Pakistan should look to placate more.
\nBut hey, if there\u2019s one thing Pakistan knows, it\u2019s how to roll with the punches and get up expecting the next one! Trade wars come and go but unpredictability is forever. And that dear reader is the sucker punch \u2013 when one\u2019s own house is not in order, any external shenanigans are merely a distraction because even if they are gone, the original plight of the nation will remain.<\/p>\n
The writer is Director Programmes for an international ICT organization based in the UK and writes on corporate strategy, socio-economic and geopolitical issues.<\/p>\n
Courtesy<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Saad Masood Say what you may about Donald Trump, he keeps things interesting! From signing a plethora of executive orders to planning to take over countries to fire federal employees and effectively shutting down USAID \u2013 all is par for the course, pun intended. Just like in 2018, the second stint of President Donald Trump […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[407],"class_list":{"0":"post-461428","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-article","7":"tag-saad-masood"},"yoast_head":"\n