Asteroid\u2019s path could cross major cities, putting over 110 million people at risk. Scientists continue to monitor.
\n Washington
\nA newly identified asteroid, 2024 YR4, has been classified as the most threatening space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting, with NASA data estimating a 3.1% chance of impact on December 22, 2032.
\nThe asteroid\u2019s trajectory could take it over some of the world\u2019s most populous cities, raising concerns among astronomers and planetary defense agencies.
\nThe estimated impact corridor stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean, across South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Middle East, and into South Asia.
\nThis trajectory includes eight of the world\u2019s top 100 most populated cities \u2014 Bogot\u00e1, Abidjan, Lagos, Khartoum, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Dhaka\u2014with a combined urban population of over 110 million people.
\nAsteroid\u2019s Destructive Potential
\nMeasuring between 130 and 300 feet (40\u201390 metres) wide, 2024 YR4 has the potential to cause massive destruction if it enters Earth\u2019s atmosphere. Scientists estimate its impact force at approximately eight megatons of TNT\u2014more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
\nIf the asteroid collides with Earth, the most likely scenario is an airburst explosion at high altitude, which could devastate an area with a 50-kilometer (30-mile) radius. However, if it is at the larger end of size estimates, it could create an impact crater, further escalating its destructive power.
\nThe asteroid\u2019s speed, which could reach 40,000 miles per hour, would significantly amplify its potential for devastation.
\nNASA and Global Response Efforts
\nDespite the historically high impact probability, experts emphasize that there is no immediate cause for panic. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a United Nations-endorsed planetary defense coalition, has been closely monitoring the asteroid since its detection by Chile\u2019s El Sauce Observatory on December 27, 2023.
\nOn January 29, 2024, IAWN issued an official warning after the impact probability surpassed 1%, a rare event in planetary defense history. The European Space Agency\u2019s planetary defense office has independently estimated the impact risk at 2.8%, slightly lower than NASA\u2019s calculation.
\n\u201cThis is not a crisis at this point in time,\u201d said Richard Moissl, head of ESA\u2019s planetary defense office. \u201cThis is not the dinosaur killer. This is not a planet killer. This is, at most, dangerous for a city.\u201d
\nUpcoming James Webb observations & ongoing monitoring
\nNASA and other space agencies are working to refine 2024 YR4\u2019s trajectory. In March 2025, NASA\u2019s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST)\u2014the most powerful space observatory\u2014will be tasked with closely studying the asteroid\u2019s size, composition, and trajectory.
\n\u201cWebb is able to see things that are very, very dim,\u201d said Bruce Betts, chief scientist of the Planetary Society. \u201cThat\u2019s key because the asteroid\u2019s orbit is currently taking it out toward Jupiter, making observations challenging until its next close approach in 2028.\u201d
\nGround-based telescopes will continue tracking the asteroid until April 2024, after which it will become too faint to observe. It will remain out of sight until June 2028, when astronomers will get another opportunity to refine its trajectory.
\nMitigation plans: DART & future deflection missions
\nNASA has reassured the public that the global scientific community has the time and technology to act if 2024 YR4\u2019s impact risk rises. In 2022, NASA successfully tested its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, demonstrating that a spacecraft could alter an asteroid\u2019s course.
\nChina has announced it will conduct its own asteroid-deflection test in 2027, targeting a smaller asteroid to evaluate redirection techniques. Other space agencies are also exploring contingency measures, including gravity tractors, laser ablation, and nuclear deflection as a last resort.
\nMoissl explained that if the risk probability exceeds 10%, IAWN would issue a formal global alert, prompting UN member states with territories in potential impact zones to begin emergency preparedness planning.
\nHistorical Comparison: Apophis 2004 & the dinosaur extinction
\nThe last time an asteroid posed a similar risk was Apophis in 2004, which initially had a 2.7% chance of striking Earth in 2029. However, further observations ruled out the possibility of impact.
\nUnlike the six-mile-wide asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, 2024 YR4 is classified as a \u201ccity killer\u201d, rather than a global extinction event.
\nNo immediate danger, but continued monitoring required
\nScientists stress that while the asteroid\u2019s impact odds remain low, its trajectory is being closely monitored. If future observations indicate an increased risk, planetary defense agencies will have time to take necessary action.
\nFor now, experts advise against alarm. \u201cNaturally, when you see the percentages go up, it doesn\u2019t make you feel warm and fuzzy,\u201d said Betts, \u201cbut as astronomers gather more data, the probability will likely edge up before rapidly dropping to zero.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Asteroid\u2019s path could cross major cities, putting over 110 million people at risk. Scientists continue to monitor. Washington A newly identified asteroid, 2024 YR4, has been classified as the most threatening space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting, with NASA data estimating a 3.1% chance of impact on December 22, 2032. The asteroid\u2019s trajectory could […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":462570,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-462552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-world"],"yoast_head":"\n