Election follows collapse of centre-left SPD, Greens and pro-market FDP coalition in row over budget spending
\n Berlin
\nGermans were voting in a national election on Sunday that is expected to see Friedrich Merz\u2019s conservatives regain power and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) score its best ever result as Europe\u2019s ailing economic powerhouse lurches rightwards.
\nMerz\u2019s CDU\/CSU bloc has consistently led polls but is unlikely to win a majority given Germany\u2019s fragmented political landscape, forcing it to sound out coalition partners.
\nThose negotiations are expected to be tricky after a campaign which exposed sharp divisions over migration and how to deal with the AfD in a country where far-right politics carries a particularly strong stigma due to its Nazi past.
\nThat could leave unpopular Chancellor Olaf Scholz in a caretaker role for months, delaying urgently needed policies to revive Europe\u2019s largest economy after two consecutive years of contraction and as companies struggle against global rivals.
\nIt would also create a leadership vacuum in the heart of Europe even as it deals with a host of challenges, including US President Donald Trump\u2019s threats of a trade war and attempts to fast-track a ceasefire deal for Ukraine without European involvement.
\nGermany, which has an export-oriented economy and long relied on the US for its security, is particularly vulnerable.
\nGermans are more pessimistic about their living standards now than at any time since the financial crisis in 2008. The percentage who say their situation is improving dropped sharply from 42% in 2023 to 27% in 2024, according to pollster Gallup.
\nAttitudes towards migration have also hardened, a profound shift in German public sentiment since its \u201cRefugees Welcome\u201d culture during Europe\u2019s migrant crisis in 2015.
\nMusk weighs in
\nSunday\u2019s election follows the collapse last November of Scholz\u2019s coalition of his centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and pro-market Free Democrats (FDP) in a row over budget spending.
\nThe SPD is headed for its worst result since World War Two.
\nThe election campaign has been dominated by fierce exchanges over the perception that irregular immigration is out of control, fueled by a series of attacks in which the suspected perpetrators were of migrant origin.
\nIt has also been overshadowed by the unusually forceful show of solidarity by members of the Trump administration\u2013including Vice President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk\u2013for the anti-migrant AfD, and broadsides against European leaders.
\nThe 12-year-old AfD is on track to come in second place for the first time in a national election.
\n\u201cI\u2019m completely disappointed in politics, so maybe an alternative would be better,\u201d said retired Berlin bookkeeper Ludmila Ballhorn, 76, who plans to vote AfD, adding she was struggling to live on her pension of 800 euros. \u201cRents and all other costs have soared.\u201d
\nThe AfD, however, is unlikely to govern for now as all mainstream parties have ruled out working with it, though some analysts believe it could pave the way for an AfD win in 2029.
\nStill, its strength, along with a small but significant vote share for the far-left and the decline of Germany\u2019s big-tent parties, is increasingly complicating the formation of coalitions and governance.
\nCoalition options
\nEU allies are cautiously hopeful the elections might deliver a more coherent government able to help drive forward policy at home and in the bloc.
\nSome also hope Merz will reform the \u201cdebt brake,\u201d a constitutional mechanism to limit government borrowing that critics say has strangled new investment.
\nThe most likely outcome of this election, say analysts, is a tie-up of Merz\u2019s conservative bloc of Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) with the SPD, which is polling in third place in another uneasy \u201cgrand coalition\u201d.
\nPolls, however, suggest another three-way coalition may be necessary if several small parties make the 5% threshold to enter parliament, complicating talks.
\n\u201cA lot of my friends are likely going to vote for the conservatives because this government didn\u2019t work so well and Merz\u2019s international standing is quite good,\u201d said Mike Zeller, 26, a civil servant.
\n\u201cI just hope enough parties agree to a government so they can leave the AfD out.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Election follows collapse of centre-left SPD, Greens and pro-market FDP coalition in row over budget spending Berlin Germans were voting in a national election on Sunday that is expected to see Friedrich Merz\u2019s conservatives regain power and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) score its best ever result as Europe\u2019s ailing economic powerhouse lurches rightwards. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":463400,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-463402","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"yoast_head":"\n