Strong winds and heavy rainfall are expected to intensify across Queensland and northern New South Wales
\n Sydney
\nTropical Cyclone Alfred has unexpectedly slowed, delaying its projected landfall on Australia\u2019s east coast by at least 24 hours. Forecasters now expect it to make landfall early Saturday, a shift from earlier predictions of an early Friday impact.
\nThe delay raises concerns about prolonged heavy rainfall, strong winds, and potential flooding across southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales.
\nUnexpected shift in Cyclone\u2019s path
\nMeteorologists had initially projected Cyclone Alfred to continue moving steadily toward the Queensland coast. However, by Wednesday evening, instead of progressing inland, the cyclone stalled and looped back on itself, shifting its position further offshore.
\n\u201cAlfred basically stalled and almost did a loop-de-loop back on itself,\u201d said Christie Johnson, a meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).
\nWhy did Alfred slow down?
\nThe cyclone\u2019s movement is largely controlled by steering flow, which refers to wind patterns between 2 km and 10 km in the atmosphere.
\nOn Tuesday, Alfred encountered a high-pressure ridge over the Tasman Sea, which redirected it toward southeast Queensland.
\n\u201cWhen it took that sharp turn, it came under the influence of that ridge, and these systems tend to have much lighter winds associated with them,\u201d said Professor Liz Ritchie-Tyo, a cyclone expert at Monash University.
\nAdditionally, Alfred turned toward the coast slightly further north than forecast models had anticipated, weakening its steering flow and causing delays in movement.
\nThis unexpected shift in trajectory highlights forecasting challenges, which Ritchie-Tyo likened to the butterfly effect\u2014where small variations in a model\u2019s input can result in significant deviations in long-term projections.
\nCurrent speed and expected landfall
\nAs of Thursday morning, Alfred was moving at 7 km\/h, which is relatively slow for a tropical cyclone.
\n\u201cThere\u2019s no indication that it will pick up much speed,\u201d Ritchie-Tyo said. \u201cSo that means the winds and rain will remain over the same area for an extended period.\u201d
\nAccording to BoM meteorologists, the storm could stall again before landfall or temporarily speed up overnight Thursday into Friday, before slowing again.
\nQueensland Premier David Crisafulli stated on Thursday that the most likely scenario remains a coastal crossing on Saturday morning, delaying the impact by 24 hours from initial predictions.
\nWhen will the impacts be felt?
\nCoastal regions in southeast Queensland and northern NSW have already begun experiencing strong winds and heavy rainfall, with conditions expected to intensify throughout Thursday and Friday.
\nBrisbane is expected to experience very strong winds by Thursday night.
\nA severe weather warning has been issued from Gympie to the NSW border, warning of intense rainfall and damaging winds.
\nThe BoM has cautioned that heavy rainfall from Thursday night could lead to flash flooding, particularly south of the cyclone\u2019s center.
\nCyclone intensity at landfall
\nEarlier forecasts had suggested that Cyclone Alfred could strengthen to a Category 3 system before landfall, but chances of that have now decreased.
\nThe system is now expected to weaken to Category 1 at landfall, although it may remain a high-end Category 2 for much of its approach.
\nWind speeds alone do not determine the cyclone\u2019s overall impact\u2014flooding and storm surges remain a major concern, regardless of its official classification.
\nWhile the Brisbane region is projected to be near the point of landfall, meteorologists have urged residents not to focus on the exact landfall location, as impacts will be widespread, spanning from the Sunshine Coast to northern NSW.
\nWarnings issued for wide area
\nThe BoM has advised that a vast area stretching from Double Island Point near K\u2019gari in Queensland to Grafton in northern NSW should expect damaging gales over the next 24 hours.
\nAuthorities continue to monitor Cyclone Alfred\u2019s trajectory and are urging residents in low-lying and flood-prone areas to be prepared for possible evacuations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Strong winds and heavy rainfall are expected to intensify across Queensland and northern New South Wales Sydney Tropical Cyclone Alfred has unexpectedly slowed, delaying its projected landfall on Australia\u2019s east coast by at least 24 hours. Forecasters now expect it to make landfall early Saturday, a shift from earlier predictions of an early Friday impact. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":465657,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-465639","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"yoast_head":"\n