Although it\u2019s impossible to know when earthquakes will hit, fear-inducing predictions have spread widely
\n HONG KONG
\nUnfounded online rumours warning that a huge earthquake will soon strike Japan are taking a toll on travel firms and airlines who report less demand from worried Hong Kongers. People from Hong Kong made nearly 2.7 million trips to Japan in 2024.
\nAlthough it is impossible to know exactly when earthquakes will hit, fear-inducing predictions have spread widely among the city\u2019s residents.
\nSome of the false posts cite a Japanese manga comic, republished in 2021, which predicts a major natural disaster in July 2025 \u2014 based on the author\u2019s dream.
\nOther posts give different dates, while a Facebook group that claims to predict disasters in Japan has over a quarter of a million members, mainly in Hong Kong and Taiwan.
\n\u201cThe earthquake prophecy has absolutely caused a big change to our customers\u2019 preferences,\u201d said Frankie Chow, head of Hong Kong travel agency CLS Holiday.
\nChow told AFP that in March and April his company received 70-80% fewer inquiries about travelling to Japan than last year.
\n\u201cI\u2019ve never experienced this before,\u201d said Chow, who also runs the booking website Flyagain.la. While some people changed their destination, others \u201cdid not dare to travel\u201d, he said.
\nMild to moderate earthquakes are common in Japan, where strict building codes minimise damage, even from larger shakes.
\nBut the nation is no stranger to major disasters, including in 2011 when a magnitude-9.0 quake triggered a tsunami that left 18,500 people dead or missing and caused a devastating meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant. Earthquakes are very rarely felt in Hong Kong, but some people are easily spooked by disinformation, Chow said.
\n\u2018Megaquake\u2019 warning
\nLast month, Tokyo\u2019s Cabinet Office said on social media platform X: \u201cPredicting earthquakes by date, time and place is not possible based on current scientific knowledge.\u201d
\nA Cabinet Office official told AFP that the X post was part of its usual information-sharing about earthquakes.
\nBut Japan\u2019s Asahi Shimbun daily reported that it was responding to prophecies that sprung up online after a Japanese government panel in January released a new estimate for the probability of a \u201cmegaquake\u201d.
\nThe panel said the chance of a massive earthquake along the undersea Nankai Trough south of Japan in the next three decades had marginally increased to 75-82%.
\nThis was followed by a new damage estimate in March from the Cabinet Office, which said a Nankai Trough megaquake and tsunami could cause 298,000 deaths in Japan.
\nDespite being a routine update of a previous 2014 figure, the estimate appears to have fanned tourists\u2019 fears.
\nA YouTube video featuring a feng shui master urging viewers not to visit Japan, published by local media outlet HK01, has been viewed more than 100,000 times.
\nDon Hon, one of Hong Kong\u2019s 7.5 million residents, does not entirely believe the online claims, but has still been influenced by them.
\n\u201cI will just take it as a precaution, and won\u2019t make any particular plans to travel to Japan,\u201d the 32-year-old social worker said.
\nAnd if a friend were to ask him to visit Japan in July, Hon \u201cmight suggest going somewhere else\u201d.
\n\u2018No reason to worry\u2019
\nHong Kong-based Greater Bay Airlines has reduced flights to Japan\u2019s southern Tokushima region, a local tourism official told AFP.
\n\u201cThe company told us demand has rapidly decreased amid rumours there will be a big quake and tsunami in Japan this summer,\u201d she said.
\n\u201cThree scheduled weekly round-trip flights will be reduced to two round-trips per week from May 12 to October 25.\u201d
\nThe airline is also reducing its flights to Sendai in the northern region of Miyagi.
\n\u201cThere\u2019s no reason to worry,\u201d Miyagi\u2019s governor Yoshihiro Murai reassured travellers, adding that Japanese people are not fleeing.
\nBut \u201cif unscientific rumours on social media are impacting tourism, that would be a major problem\u201d, he said last month.
\nAccording to the Japan National Tourism Organisation, the number of Hong Kong visitors in March stood at 208,400 \u2014 down nearly 10% year-on-year.
\nHowever, this decline was partly due to the Easter holidays starting in mid-April this year, instead of March, they said.
\nHong Kong-based EGL Tours has not seen a massive decline in customers travelling to Japan, its executive director Steve Huen Kwok-chuen said.
\nBut recent bookings at its two hotels in Japan show fewer from Hong Kong guests, while the number from other global destinations remains stable.
\nIn any case, in the likely event that the predictions do not come to pass, \u201cpeople will realise it\u2019s not true\u201d, he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Although it\u2019s impossible to know when earthquakes will hit, fear-inducing predictions have spread widely HONG KONG Unfounded online rumours warning that a huge earthquake will soon strike Japan are taking a toll on travel firms and airlines who report less demand from worried Hong Kongers. People from Hong Kong made nearly 2.7 million trips to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":478837,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-478816","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"yoast_head":"\n