Though the two neighbors declared a cease-fire this month, a crucial water-sharing treaty remains at risk
\n New Delhi
\nThe drones and missiles have been stilled after India and Pakistan\u2019s brief but intense military battle this month. But the two neighbors have turned up the heat on another longstanding conflict, over the sharing of water.
\nA day after terrorists killed 26 people on the Indian side of Kashmir in April, igniting tensions that would lead to four days of escalating conflict, the Indian government said it would suspend a vital pact governing rivers that flow from India into Pakistan.
\nThat agreement, the Indus Waters Treaty, covers a river system that tens of millions of people rely on for their livelihoods and survival. India, which linked the April attack to Pakistan, said it would step away from its obligations under the pact until its nemesis \u201ccredibly and irrevocably\u201d renounced support for cross-border terrorism. Pakistan, which denied any role in the terrorist attack, called India\u2019s move an \u201cact of war.\u201d
\nIndia\u2019s targeting of water, however, is not just about combating terrorism, analysts say. The Indian government has been frustrated by the 65-year-old treaty, believing it has favored Pakistan from the start, and analysts say that India is hoping to force Pakistan to renegotiate it. That could allow India to better use its allotted waters to meet the needs of its immense population and adapt to climate change.
\nIndia\u2019s decision to put the agreement \u201cin abeyance\u201d \u2014 and the vague conditions it has imposed on Pakistan to reverse that \u2014 has injected a note of uncertainty into the future of a treaty that has survived multiple wars and conflicts.
\nA full breakdown would have serious consequences for both countries, especially Pakistan, an arid land with few other sources of water.
\nRising temperatures and increased demand make South Asia\u2019s water systems among the world\u2019s most stressed. The hostile neighbors also share a need to address dangers like flash floods and glacial lake bursts unleashed by global warming. And if changes in river flows endanger Pakistani lives or employment, India could face international opprobrium.
\n\u2018A Spirit of Good Will\u2019
\nThe treaty specifies how the waters of the Indus River basin \u2014 around which one of the world\u2019s oldest civilizations, the Indus Valley civilization, flourished \u2014 will be used by the two countries.
\nThe agreement, which became necessary after India and Pakistan became independent nations in 1947, took nine years to negotiate and was signed in 1960 in what its preamble called a \u201cspirit of good will,\u201d and with the World Bank as a mediator.
\nPakistan has unrestricted use of three western rivers, and India has the same claim to three eastern rivers. India also has limited rights to the western rivers within its territory, including for irrigation, and the ability to build dams for power generation.
\nThe treaty\u2019s allotment of 80 percent of the waters in the Indus system to Pakistan was a \u201cremarkable act of generosity, driven by the hope of promoting subcontinental peace,\u201d said Brahma Chellaney, a strategic analyst who has written about water and conflict.
\nScientists and officials say the treaty has held up because it is a sound legal document that provides for a permanent commission with representatives from each country who are expected to be in regular contact, as well as mechanisms for settling conflicts using neutral experts and arbitration.
\nBut it has been a trying process over the decades between deeply distrustful neighbors.
\nIn 1992, when five days of heavy monsoon rains caused deadly flooding, Pakistani officials accused India of unannounced dam releases, while India maintained that the actions were necessary owing to the extreme rainfall and were in compliance with protocol.
\nIndia currently has six dams on the western rivers, with plans to build more. Pakistan has raised objections to several of the dam designs and plans, including the Kishenganga hydroelectric project.
\nOver the past decade, the treaty has encountered increasing geopolitical friction. After attacks on Indian troops in 2016 and 2019 in Indian-administered Kashmir, India announced plans to curtail water flows to Pakistan but did not follow through.
\nThe treaty can be altered by mutual consent. As India has formally sought to revise the treaty, Pakistan has rejected these efforts, according to Indian government records and experts.
\n\u201cThe obstructionist approach\u201d continues to prevent the \u201cutilization of the legitimate rights by India,\u201d Parvathaneni Harish, India\u2019s permanent representative to the United Nations, said at a forum last week on water and armed conflict.
\nAt the same meeting, Pakistan\u2019s deputy permanent representative, Usman Jadoon, said that India was using river waters as a political weapon, and that Islamabad would not allow New Delhi to turn water into a tool of coercion.
\nPakistan\u2019s Woes
\nIndia has little ability to substantially reduce the flow of water into Pakistan, and building the infrastructure to do so would take years, experts say.
\nBut Pakistan is unnerved by India\u2019s suspension of its participation in the treaty in part because India has stopped providing hydrological data, according to Indian government officials and experts.
\nBecause it is downstream, Pakistan relies heavily on India to share this data, which is crucial for Pakistani agriculture, a sector that accounts for nearly a quarter of the country\u2019s economy and employs 37 percent of the labor force.
\nInformation from India about glacier melt, the speed of floodwaters and precipitation levels, as well as timing decisions on opening sluice gates, is vital for Pakistan to determine its irrigation needs and flood management plans.
\nEven before the current suspension, India in recent years was providing no more than 40 percent of the required river flow data, said Shiraz Memon, a former Pakistani commissioner of the Indus Waters Treaty.
\nFazalullah Qureshi, a former senior Pakistani official, linked this data gap to Pakistan\u2019s inability to anticipate devastating floods in 2022, which killed over 1,700 people and affected 33 million of the country\u2019s 245 million people.
\nDuring the coming monsoon season, Pakistani water managers will need to operate in a more uncertain environment, relying less on formal notifications and more on real-time observations and rapid-response systems, said Hassaan F. Khan, an assistant professor of environmental studies at Tufts University.
\nDr. Khan said that underscored the \u201curgent need for Pakistan to invest in more nimble, adaptive water governance.\u201d
\nMr. Qureshi, the former official, said there was no immediate threat to the country\u2019s water supply, but a prolonged suspension of treaty mechanisms could severely affect agriculture and the broader economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Though the two neighbors declared a cease-fire this month, a crucial water-sharing treaty remains at risk New Delhi The drones and missiles have been stilled after India and Pakistan\u2019s brief but intense military battle this month. But the two neighbors have turned up the heat on another longstanding conflict, over the sharing of water. A […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":482161,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-482158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-world"],"yoast_head":"\n