LONDON: European countries are stuck between a rock and a hard place as a coalition of countries meets in Paris on Thursday to discuss security guarantees for a postwar Ukraine.<\/p>\n
The war is raging unabated, with no ceasefire in sight \u2014 and the crucial question of American involvement in ensuring Ukraine\u2019s future security remains unresolved.<\/p>\n
For months, the so-called \u201ccoalition of the willing\u201d has been meeting to discuss aid for Ukraine, including sketching out plans for military support in the event of a ceasefire to deter future Russian aggression.<\/p>\n
The coalition leaders \u2014 French President Emmanuel Macron and U.K Prime Minister Keir Starmer \u2014 have insisted that any European \u201creassurance\u201d force in Ukraine needs the backing of the United States. But while US President Donald Trump has hinted his country will be involved, he has moved away from calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine and refrained from implementing tough additional economic measures to punish Moscow.<\/p>\n
Although Trump said he is \u201cdisappointed\u201d in Russian President Vladimir Putin and issued several threats to try to cajole him into negotiating an end to hostilities, none has worked. At a meeting with Putin in Alaska in August, Trump failed to persuade the Russian leader to stop fighting and has not yet managed to broker talks between Putin and Ukraine\u2019s President Volodymyr Zelensky.<\/p>\n
While Trump and European leaders met in Washington after the Alaska summit \u2014 and US, European and NATO military chiefs held discussions on support for Ukraine \u2014 little concrete detail has emerged on the security guarantees to deter Moscow from a future conflict.<\/p>\n
Former military generals and experts suggest Europe is in a bind \u2014 not knowing the level of support the US is prepared to provide the coalition, the nature of any ceasefire or if the US will abide by commitments made. It\u2019s also far from certain that Putin would agree to a cessation of hostilities, something Russian officials have invariably dismissed.<\/p>\n
\u201cTalking about detailed operational planning when you don\u2019t actually have your mission is, quite frankly, impossible,\u201d said Ed Arnold, an expert in European Security at the Royal United Services Institute in London and a former military planner.<\/p>\n
Why Europeans believe a ceasefire is necessary<\/p>\n
The \u201ccoalition of the willing\u201d is a broad term for about 30 nations supporting Ukraine, but the so-called \u201creassurance force\u201d that would provide security guarantees to Kyiv is a subset of that group.<\/p>\n
The UK, France and Estonia have all suggested they are ready to deploy troops to Ukraine to deter Putin from attacking again, while officials in Poland said Warsaw will not take part and will instead focus on bolstering NATO security in the east of Europe.<\/p>\n
There is \u201cno suggestion\u201d that any troops will be deployed without a ceasefire because it\u2019s too risky, said Fran\u00e7ois Heisbourg, special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris.<\/p>\n
Despite Zelensky signaling his willingness to talk, a ceasefire agreement is not currently in the cards \u2014 not least because of the positions of the US and Russian presidents.<\/p>\n
At his Aug. 18 meeting with European leaders at the White House \u2014 a day after meeting Putin \u2014 Trump walked back his previous demands for a ceasefire in Ukraine and said he thought a peace agreement was preferable.<\/p>\n
The comments marked a shift toward the Russian position from Trump and would allow Moscow to fight on in Ukraine while peace negotiations are underway.<\/p>\n
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov later suggested an end to hostilities was even further away, stating that Moscow will not accept Zelensky\u2019s signature on any peace agreement as Russia considers him to be an illegitimate president.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf Putin doesn\u2019t want a ceasefire \u2014 and if Trump doesn\u2019t call for a ceasefire \u2014 what are the chances of a ceasefire happening?\u201d asked Heisbourg.<\/p>\n
What a European security guarantee for Ukraine could look like<\/p>\n
Even if a ceasefire or peace agreement for Ukraine were implemented, it\u2019s not clear it would be a sufficient deterrent to Putin and would be \u201cvery, very risky\u201d for European nations, said Arnold at RUSI.<\/p>\n
Such an operation hinges on the US providing intelligence support and the deterrent effect of US airpower in countries outside Ukraine.<\/p>\n
The Western appetite to potentially shoot down Russian missiles violating a ceasefire or target launchers firing them from within Russia is \u201cclose to zero,\u201d said Heisbourg.<\/p>\n
Any response to a ceasefire violation, he said, would likely depend on \u201chow many Western soldiers the Russians would have actually killed…and nobody wants to think about that too much in advance.\u201d<\/p>\n
In March, Starmer told allies that a force for Ukraine would need at least 10,000 troops, but that would potentially require around 30,000 troops when taking into account those on rotation and rest.<\/p>\n
As a coalition leader, the UK should look at contributing a brigade of 5,000 soldiers which would become 15,000 when taking into account rest and rotation, said Arnold.<\/p>\n
That figure would account for about 30 percent of the deployable capacity of the British Army, he said, and potentially create a \u201ctricky\u201d problem whereby the UK deploys more forces on behalf of non-NATO ally Ukraine than it does for NATO allies such as Estonia.<\/p>\n
European officials have indicated that the troops could be involved in training Ukrainian soldiers and likely based away from the frontlines although the risk of Russian missile and drone strikes would remain high.<\/p>\n
But there would be \u201czero credibility\u201d if Western troops were put in various Ukrainian towns without a clear mission or purpose, said Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the US Army in Europe.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat will not impress the Russians at all,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
US as a reliable partner<\/p>\n
European leaders are also grappling with the question of whether to take Trump and his officials at their word while also eyeing the rise of populist parties \u2014 particularly in the UK, France and Germany \u2014 which may not share the same commitment to Ukraine as current political leadership.<\/p>\n
That means the future of any security guarantees for Kyiv could be extremely fragile.<\/p>\n
There is \u201cabsolutely no guarantee\u201d that Trump will abide by commitments made to European nations over Ukraine, said Arnold, pointing to Trump\u2019s withdrawal from previous agreements, including the Paris climate agreement and Iran\u2019s nuclear deal.<\/p>\n
That means European nations cannot rely on him ordering US jets into action in the event of a ceasefire violation because \u201cat one time he may say yes, at another time he may say no,\u201d Arnold said.<\/p>\n
With NATO membership for Kyiv ruled out by Trump and a host of hurdles to overcome to implement security guarantees for Ukraine, European leaders may decide to navigate the situation by spending \u201ca lot more money on weapons\u201d for Kyiv, said Heisbourg.<\/p>\n
Arnold agreed, adding that the best option could be to give Kyiv \u201cloads of guns and loads of ammo.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s no easy way out,\u201d he said. \u201cNone of the options, especially for the Europeans, are good.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
LONDON: European countries are stuck between a rock and a hard place as a coalition of countries meets in Paris on Thursday to discuss security guarantees for a postwar Ukraine. The war is raging unabated, with no ceasefire in sight \u2014 and the crucial question of American involvement in ensuring Ukraine\u2019s future security remains unresolved. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":500952,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-500940","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"yoast_head":"\n