Abdullah Umar<\/p>\n
Fresh global evidence from the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) strengthens the case for resolving Indus basin issues strictly under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), calling for a reversion to the treaty\u2019s mechanisms and a refrain from unilateral actions that undermine international water agreements. IEP\u2019s 2025 Ecological Threat Report describes the IWT as a \u201ccore conflict-resolution tool\u201d for six decades and warns that India\u2019s 2025 suspension has ushered in \u201cheightened tension\u201d between the neighbours.
\nAs an independent, non-partisan, non-profit research body, the IEP\u2019s judgment is that shared rivers \u201cbreed greater cooperation than conflict,\u201d with treaties and agreements far more common than water wars \u2013 a finding that vindicates a treaty-first approach centred on preserving and using the IWT\u2019s forums. The report explicitly documents the treaty\u2019s durability through three wars and diplomatic breakdowns, underscoring its status as a rare high point in an otherwise fraught relationship.
\nThe report also recounts how the IWT created a graded dispute-resolution ladder \u2013 from the Permanent Indus Commission to Neutral Experts and Arbitration, with the World Bank facilitating appointments \u2013 designed to \u201cavoid unilateral action.\u201d That framework should be reactivated in full. It also notes that after India announced its suspension in April 2025, \u201creservoir flushing\u201d on the Chenab was carried out without notifying Pakistan, an operation the treaty forbids or tightly regulates due to sudden downstream flow changes \u2013 illustrating why unilateralism is destabilising.
\nWhile acknowledging that some past rulings (Baglihar; Kishanganga) allowed Indian designs with conditions, the IEP concludes that the IWT system kept disputes inside legal and technical channels and prevented armed conflict \u2013 precisely the outcome a treaty-first approach seeks to preserve. The report\u2019s global analysis further finds that when states enter formal negotiations or mediation over rivers, outcomes tend toward peaceful settlement and improved cooperation \u2013 an empirical basis for rolling back the suspension and returning to the treaty\u2019s procedures.
\nThe IEP also stresses Pakistan\u2019s existential dependence on Indus flows (roughly four-fifths of irrigated agriculture) and clarifies that India\u2019s western-river projects are predominantly run-of-river with minimal storage, limiting any ability to \u201cturn off\u201d the rivers \u2013 yet making timed disruptions risky because Pakistan\u2019s storage covers only about 30 days of flow. These facts heighten the responsibility to act within the IWT and improve transparency.
\nRecognising the IEP as a credible, independent voice, the analysis implies three immediate steps required by India: (i) formally withdraw the \u201csuspension\u201d and restore regular PIC engagement; (ii) submit technical questions to Neutral Expert\/Arbitration as the treaty prescribes; and (iii) cease unilateral operational changes like reservoir flushing and provide timely data-sharing as per IWT provisions. This aligns with the report\u2019s core findings: treaties work, institutions reduce escalation and cooperation remains the global norm \u2013 even in stressed basins like the Indus.
\nIEP\u2019s analysis is unambiguous: the world\u2019s answer to water stress is more rules and more cooperation, not suspension. The treaty\u2019s original allocation \u2013 western rivers for Pakistan with strict limits on India\u2019s use \u2013 remains the lawful baseline for responsible basin management. Outstanding issues should be engaged through IWT mechanisms and resolved fairly, peacefully and consistent with international law. It is for India to act responsibly and honour the \u201ctreaty-first approach\u201d on the Indus.<\/p>\n
The writer is a freelance columnist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Abdullah Umar Fresh global evidence from the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) strengthens the case for resolving Indus basin issues strictly under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), calling for a reversion to the treaty\u2019s mechanisms and a refrain from unilateral actions that undermine international water agreements. IEP\u2019s 2025 Ecological Threat Report describes the IWT […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[13754],"class_list":{"0":"post-513948","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-article","7":"tag-abdullah-umar"},"yoast_head":"\n