American researchers say restrictions on Chinese imports could help create complications for Beijing\u2019s economic growth target next year
\n BEIJING
\nWhile China has already logged a record-breaking trade surplus in the first 11 months of 2025, that milestone could be a harbinger of more protectionist pushback, an American research firm said on Monday \u2013 a development that could complicate the country\u2019s efforts to meet its economic growth target in 2026.
\nThough export performance remains the \u201cmost important\u201d variable for China\u2019s real economic growth rate next year, trade measures adopted by other countries and weaker demand will also have an impact, according to Rhodium Group co-founder Daniel Rosen.
\nChanges to external demand and inventory restocking in developed economies \u2013 which the International Monetary Fund expects will see a continuous slowdown in 2026 \u2013 remain risks to China\u2019s export hopes according to Monday\u2019s report from Rhodium, which Rosen co-authored.
\nIn particular, Europe or emerging markets could \u201cpush back more strongly\u201d against Chinese trade practices, he said, building on or augmenting restrictions that have already been placed on imports of the country\u2019s goods.
\nIn the first 11 months of 2025, China\u2019s trade surplus surpassed the US$1 trillion benchmark set in the whole of last year \u2013 an achievement Rosen attributed to the country\u2019s endeavours to diversify its trade and the depreciation of the real exchange rate, a trend he said was consistent with domestic deflationary pressures.
\n\u201cThese lower prices have allowed China to diversify its exports away from the United States,\u201d Rosen added.
\n\u201cDirect exports to the US have declined sharply \u2013 20 to 30 per cent year on year every month since April \u2013 but exports to all other regions are increasing, especially Africa, the European Union and Asean [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations].\u201d
\nRosen noted that China\u2019s export prices have declined for a third consecutive year, resulting in a 10 per cent growth in export volume, adding import demand \u201csimilarly appears subdued\u201d, having only grown by 0.1 per cent in yuan terms from January to November.
\nNet exports accounted for 29 per cent of the country\u2019s gross domestic product growth in the first nine months of the year, government data showed.
\nBeijing is widely expected to repeat this year\u2019s \u201caround 5 per cent\u201d target for GDP growth in 2026. Major financial institutions are now estimating the intensity of global headwinds against China\u2019s level of policy support as they determine their own forecasts for next year.
\nMorgan Stanley, for instance, projected a 4.8 per cent growth rate for 2026, saying Beijing\u2019s more reactive approach to policy formulation would not be enough to turbocharge domestic demand.
\nIn the Rhodium report, Rosen and his colleagues argued that fading motivation for expansive fiscal policy could limit infrastructure spending, leading to weak momentum for new investment in the beginning of 2026 as export-heavy industries rest and a prolonged downturn in the property market continues to weigh on activity.
\n\u201cAll important components of fixed-asset investment \u2013 manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate \u2013 now show malaise,\u201d he said.
\nChina\u2019s manufacturing investment has come under pressure in the second half of the year \u2013 falling from 9.2 per cent growth in 2024 to 1.9 per cent for the first 11 months of 2025 \u2013 due to uncertainties generated by the trade war with the US and ripple effects from declining property investment, the Rhodium researchers said.
\nEven with a successful campaign to rein in fierce intra-industry competition that has slashed profits and sent prices tumbling in several sectors, Rosen explained, \u201cprices will discourage new manufacturing investment in the short term.\u201d
\nConsumption, frequently cited by China\u2019s policymakers as a major driver of future growth, was named in the Rhodium report as an area of weak momentum heading into 2026.
\nThough Beijing rolled out a set of measures designed to promote services consumption in September, Rosen said their effect would be marginal on spending next year, adding \u201cmore fundamental reforms\u201d would be able to \u201clift income growth and reduce China\u2019s high savings rate\u201d over the course of \u201cmultiple years\u201d.
\nIn its annual assessment of China\u2019s economy, the IMF urged Beijing to shift towards a consumption-led model to compensate for global trade tensions and other complicating factors.
\nHan Wenxiu, deputy director of the general office of China\u2019s Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, was quoted by state broadcaster CCTV at a conference earlier this month saying actions should be taken to boost consumption, including increasing household incomes and raising pensions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
American researchers say restrictions on Chinese imports could help create complications for Beijing\u2019s economic growth target next year BEIJING While China has already logged a record-breaking trade surplus in the first 11 months of 2025, that milestone could be a harbinger of more protectionist pushback, an American research firm said on Monday \u2013 a development […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":522538,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-522519","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business"},"yoast_head":"\n