By:
\nHusnain Aftab, Anas Ahmad, Muhammad Umair<\/p>\n
The wheat-producing area of Punjab has suffered from heavy hailstorms during April 2026. At this critical point in time, there will be an immense effect on wheat yield and grain quality just prior to harvesting. Approximately three-quarters of Pakistan’s total wheat production comes from Punjab and the hail damage will result not only in reduced income to farmers but will also result in a decreased domestic supply, an increase in milling costs and an increase in the likelihood that flour and\/or bread prices will increase for consumers. It is estimated that the amount of wheat produced in the province will be reduced by 7% to 10% compared to what would have been produced without the storms. In addition, some districts have experienced 20% to 25% losses in wheat due to the storms, particularly in those areas where late sown wheat (i.e., sown after 20 February) coincided with the hail.
\nThe most significant cause of damage was a powerful western disturbance that caused severe hail and strong gusty winds throughout the vast majority of Punjab during the last few days of March and the first days of April, at precisely the time most of the wheat crop was either entering or leaving the mature phase of growth. Observers across a 250 km band of 14 districts, throughout Central Punjab (from Sargodha, the district of Lahore to the north, and through Multan, Muzaffargarh and Kot Adu to the south) observed the flattening of standing wheat, the heads of which were pushed into the mud due to soybean stem breakage caused by hail stones, and the heads of grains of wheat ultimately being exposed to continued moisture. As per Provincial Agriculture Ministry Officials, visible damage was reported over an area greater than 125,000 acres; however actual tonnage of wheat loss will not be known until after the completion of a post-harvest survey of all areas which are included in the survey. Nevertheless, available estimates suggest that a yield decrease of 7-10% will translate into a significant reduction in the contribution of wheat from Punjab to the wheat basket of Canada, which is already under duress from production shortfalls experienced during the preceding seasons.
\nThree primary factors lead to yield loss, which is the result of mechanical damage caused by hail, lodging, and delayed harvests. Hail decreases stem and spikelet bruising, resulting in fewer grains setting and a lower average weight of grains (1,000 x weight per grain). Lodged crops contact the soil and make it harder for combine harvesters to remove all of the heads, and therefore increase the amount of shattering and grain loss that occurs in the field. Lastly, muddy conditions and wet soil created by rain surrounding the storm create a delayed starting point for farmers until weather permits them to harvest. Only further compounding these issues, which have the potential to cause as much as 25% yield loss in the most severely affected areas of South Punjab, is the extended time period during which grain was lost as a result of bird, rodent, and mechanical damage during the harvest process.
\nThe decline in grain quality from the 2026 hailstorms was at least as significant as the quantitative loss, making the economic shock from this episode, in some sense, an invisible shock. In the instances of flattened fields with standing water, the grain remains in contact with the wet soil for a longer period, causing the grain to have an increased moisture content by the time it is harvested and increases the chance that the grain will be subject to mould, discolouration, and possibly sprouting prior to harvest. As a result, test weight, percentage of bright grain, and overall cleanliness will all be reduced, causing many lots to be below the ‘Fair Average Quality’ (FAQ) standard as established by the procurement agencies and millers. As a result of the change in appearance of the grain due to the above-mentioned reasons, farmers across Punjab report that their grain, appears darker, is more stained, or appears wet, regardless of whether or not they are experiencing visible yield loss, is being rejected or severely discounted at the mandis, which is forcing them to sell their grain at significantly reduced prices to the private traders who have the ability to blend or reprocess their grain.
\nThe wheat value chain has been negatively impacted by the 2026 hailstorm. Overall, small and medium farmers are seeing income reductions between Rs 10,000 to Rs 30,000 per hectare after yield loss and quality based discounts are factored in. Many smallholders will no longer be able to generate a profit from their operation, especially considering rising diesel and fertilizer costs to harvest and dry their crops. Farmers in many areas have lost 25% or more of their output due to lodging and hail will not have the financial means to make future purchases of farm inputs or expand their operations. This will occur unless they have access to comprehensive and timely crop insurance.
\nThe effects of storm damaged wheat at both the provincial and national levels are apparent at every point of the wheat supply chain, including procurement, milling, and consumer price levels. Should a significant portion of the storm damaged wheat not meet quality standards, it is very likely that public sector procurement will fail to meet planned targets, thereby resulting in either less stock in the public distribution system or greater dependence on higher cost private market grain. Millers will also have to spend additional money on cleaning, drying and blending in order to meet flour quality specifications, which will increase their operating costs and may result in their purchasing more low-grade blends or even imported wheat should they have insufficient local stocks. The impact of these supply side pressures on low-income urban and rural households will be higher flour and bread prices, decreasing the affordability of food at a time when inflationary pressures still exist as a result of shocks to the energy and food systems in the broader economy.
\nThe 2026 hailstorm incident has spurred new discussions on climate-related risk management in Punjab\u2019s wheat production system, with advocacy from development agencies and economists to implement improved crop insurance programs, enhanced damage assessment protocols, and increased availability of drying and storage facilities at village and mandi levels to enable farmer recovery from storm-event losses. Additional interest has emerged in modifying sowing calendars and sourcing varieties that mature sooner or are more resistant to lodging thereby decreasing crop exposure when hail and high winds from western disturbances occur late in March\/early April. Without implementing these adaptations, Punjab’s key role in Pakistan’s wheat economy will continue to suffer because of the climatic shocks that have significantly impacted the 2026 harvest.<\/p>\n
Husnain Aftab, Department of Climate Change MNSUAM husnainaftab09@gmail.com <\/p>\n
Anas Ahmad, Department of Agronomy MNSUAM anasahmad48064@gmail.com <\/p>\n
Muhammad Umair, Department of Horticulture m.umair@mnsuam.edu.pk <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
By: Husnain Aftab, Anas Ahmad, Muhammad Umair The wheat-producing area of Punjab has suffered from heavy hailstorms during April 2026. At this critical point in time, there will be an immense effect on wheat yield and grain quality just prior to harvesting. Approximately three-quarters of Pakistan’s total wheat production comes from Punjab and the hail […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[10],"tags":[13725,13723,13859],"class_list":{"0":"post-542870","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-article","7":"tag-anas-ahmad","8":"tag-husnain-aftab","9":"tag-muhammad-umair"},"yoast_head":"\n