Oil supplies through this shipping lane may already have exceeded ten million barrels a day
\n LONDON
\nSeven oil countries are expected to exceed their oil target this Sunday because the war in the Middle East is causing problems for Gulf nations, according to analysts, media reported. Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other members of the enlarged Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec+) are meeting online on Sunday to discuss quotas for August.
\nOpec+ will likely continue \u201cto unwind the production cuts at the same pace like in the previous months\u201d, said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at the Swiss bank UBS, predicting an increase of 188,000 barrels per day. \u201cBut for now, production is probably still below the group\u2019s targets,\u201d Staunovo told media.
\nGulf countries had to cut output after the near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz orchestrated by Iran during the war in the Middle East, which blocked their oil exports for several months.
\nBetween the first quarter of 2026 and May, combined production by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait \u2013 three of the seven countries raising their quotas \u2013 fell by some six million barrels per day, Opec data have shown.
\nBut on June 17, Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding, committing themselves to removing obstacles to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of talks following the signature.
\nSince then, ship transport in the region has shown signs of recovery, and oil prices have dropped sharply to levels comparable to those seen before the war in anticipation of a gradual return to normal.
\nOil supplies through this shipping lane may already have exceeded ten million barrels a day, according to a US official quoted by the Bloomberg agency. But the oil currently leaving the strait has up to now been stored on tankers or in storage facilities, said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen, adding that \u201cshut\u2013in production takes time to restart\u201d.
\n\u201cAssuming shipping continues to normalise, July will show an improvement with August probably being the month where the pickup accelerates,\u201d he told media.
\nRebuilding the inventories that countries tapped during the conflict should help absorb the flows at first, but producers may face a strong downward pressure on prices later on.
\nAnd Opec+, already weakened by the departure of the United Arab Emirates from the group in May, will have to manage sliding prices while members will push for production increases.
\nIraq, in particular, has asked the cartel to raise production quotas to make up for the shortfall it incurred during the war in the Middle East, the Iraqi Oil Ministry said in late June. But Hansen said the need for a higher quota \u201cis not imminent\u201d as production volumes are still far from their pre\u2013conflict levels. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Oil supplies through this shipping lane may already have exceeded ten million barrels a day LONDON Seven oil countries are expected to exceed their oil target this Sunday because the war in the Middle East is causing problems for Gulf nations, according to analysts, media reported. Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other members of the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":544520,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-554812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\n