As co-chairman of Pakistan People’s Party, Asif Ali Zardari plans to attend the inauguration ceremony of President-elect, Donald Trump scheduled to be held on 20th January, it is a moment to reflect on what the transition in Washington means for Pakistan. Trump has been outspoken about the supposed hard headed measures that he would take in order to put the interests of the United States over and above everything else. A clear departure from the liberal internationalist policy followed by the Obama administration, the realist paradigm that Trump is returning towards is still too opaque to be substantively evaluated, especially vis-à-vis Pakistan. While some commentators in Pakistan have been quick to paint pictures of doom and gloom, it must be realised that there does seem to be a disjunct between what is now being called ‘campaign talk’ and actual policy. Indeed the complexity of administration coupled with Trump’s inexperience on foreign affairs and matters of statecraft means that the role of his advisors and secretaries of state would weigh in heavily on formulating US foreign policy.
While Trump may have sold to the American public far more than he might be able to deliver, to argue that he would be greatly limited by his promises in the future is akin to indulging in naivety. After all, bloated promises to the electorate is a quotidian practice for politicians, since, more often than not, their penchant for prevarication combined with the relatively short term memory of the electorate gives them the means to back track on most of their election time claims.
However, while Trump’s earlier statements need to be viewed with a certain degree of skepticism, those of the United States Secretary of Defence designate, James Mattis might give a glimpse into the future foreign policy of the United States. Speaking at his confirmation hearing at the Senate Armed Forces Committee on Thursday, Mattis expressed the need for the United States to “incentivise Pakistan’s cooperation on issues critical to (United State’s) national interests and the region’s security, with focus Pakistan’s need to expel or neutralise externally-focused militant groups that operate within its borders.
” On the surface this seems to be a reiteration of the age old US mantra towards Pakistan to “do more;” however, the real question lies in the extent to which the United States is willing to go to secure its perceived long term interests in the region. At the moment it seems that Mattis subscribes to the idea that sanctioning Pakistan would have detrimental impact on US interests, as he expressed his disinclination to the idea of slapping conditions on security assistance towards Pakistan. This might signal a break from the low that Pakistan-US relations have been experiencing ever since the US Congress decided to not release the funds for the Pakistan-US F-16 aircraft deal. Indeed Pakistan’s Ambassador to the United States, Jalil Abbas Jilani was quick to express his hope that the Trump administration would look to reopen the cancelled deal.
It is no secret that Pakistan and the United States have historically had a relationship that is in no small terms peculiar. Where it has been characterised by mistrust and misgivings, shared interests have militated against keeping them strained for an extended period of time. At the moment, Pakistan is in need of a foreign policy in which it can improve its relations with its neighbours as well as maintain a healthy relationship with the United States, which has its own set of strings attached but nevertheless gives Pakistan a certain degree of support and international protection. Similarly, as the Afghan peace process is underway and China is increasingly entering the domain within Pakistan that was previously considered to be the US sphere of influence, Washington needs a friendly Islamabad on its side. It can only be hoped that the new administration would realise that a partnership of equality with Pakistan is the only way that a beneficial relationship can be sustained in the longterm.
Return to homeland
Thousands of Pakistanis who fled to Afghanistan to escape fighting between the army and militants in the northwestern tribal areas have reportedly begun returning home, approximately two years after they were displaced, officials said. The first batch of 200 tribal families from North Waziristan district wasbeing greeted by officials at the Ghulam Khan border crossing, where a point for the returning tribal refugees had been established, said local administrator Kamran Khan Afridi. He said similar numbers would be arriving daily until January 26, with the families first accommodated in camps before being sent back to their villages and towns. Pakistan’s army launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb in June 2014 to wipe out militant bases in northwestern tribal areas and bring an end to a bloody insurgency that has cost thousands of civilian lives since 2004.More than two thousand families of North Waziristan migrated to the adjacent province of Afghanistan before the security forces OperationZarb-e-Azb against militants in the area. Also, thousands were displaced internally who had to move to internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in Peshawar and other regions.
Pakistani authorities say 67,000 homes in the tribal belt were completely destroyed, but there has been no independent assessment of the scale of the damage. The country has asked the international community for $800 million to “rebuild and rehabilitate” the tribal areas. Moreover, the authorities had announced earlier last year that a mechanism wouldbe formed for the safe return of the displaced families by the end of the last year, but no progress had been done. Recently, some reports had emerged that some tribal groups had been displaced from camps, rendering them homeless in the cold weather. Other than the locally displaced persons and Pakistanis displaced to Afghanistan due to Operations in FATA region, the Afghan refugees also deserve the attention of the authorities.
The people of the bordering areas do not consider the Durand Line as a strictly a border between their Pashtun ethnicity and have relatives living across the frontier. That’s the primary reason some of the families had chosen to move to Afghanistan amid the operation in their region. Therefore, along with the rehabilitation of the returning families from Afghanistan, arrangements should be made for the safe return of the Afghan refugees living in Pakistan for decades. The people of the area have suffered long and deserve special attention of the state to bring them to parity with the other regions of Pakistan. The reforms process of FATA should be expedited, and a comprehensive plan should be put in place for the rehabilitation of the returning families. The region has been at the forefront in the war against terror and has suffered severely. To prevent any future terrorist havens in the area the local community should be onboard with the policies of the state, which can only happen by building a trust with special attention to the region.
