KARACHI
After closing in green for the third consecutive week with a gain of 170 points (0.37 percent), the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) is likely to keep bullish bias intact in the week starting today (Monday) on the back of the ongoing result season.
However, surging crude oil and commodity prices amid Russia-Ukraine tension, which have rattled the financial and equity markets across the globe, may dent the investors’ confidence. The local bourse has made gains in nine out of the last ten weeks.
Arif Habib Ltd in its note for the upcoming week predicted, “We expect the market to remain positive in the upcoming week. With the continuation of a strong result season, certain sectors and scrips are expected to stay under the limelight.”
About last week, the brokerage said the market commenced the week on a positive note after the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) nod to $1 billion disbursements. However, the market corrected midweek as oil prices surged to eight-year high. Moreover, the budget deficit for the first six months of fiscal year 2021-22 touched Rs1.371 trillion to 2.1 percent of gross domestic product, it added.
Furthermore, the government raised Rs509 billion through treasury bills’ auction, slightly higher than the target of Rs500 billion, with an increase in yields compared to secondary market yields. Again, the rupee’s stability against the US dollar and approval of the much-awaited textile policy by the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the federal cabinet after incorporating certain amendments bolstered the overall mood of the market and helped the KSE-100 Index to close at 46,079.37 points.
The foreigners proved to be net sellers during the week, offloading stocks worth $5.9 million compared to a net sale of $4.4 million in the preceding week. Local mutual funds and insurance companies also sold equities worth $4.5 million and 3.7 million, respectively, during the week. Major selling was witnessed in technology ($3.2 million) and all other sectors ($1.6 million).
On the buying side, the net buyers were organisations and individuals with $11.1 million and $3.1 million respectively. Average trade volumes clocked in at 207 million shares, down 28 percent on a week-on-week basis, while average traded value arrived at $46 million, down 16 percent.
The sectors that turned the index towards north were fertilizers with 159 points, automobile assembler (55 points), oil and gas exploration companies (40 points), commercial banks (38 points), and power generation and distribution (34 points). The sectors that turned the index towards south were technology and communication with 66 points, cement (49 points), oil & gas marketing companies (45 points), insurance (36 points), and cable & electrical goods (20 points).
The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) recently released an update on its Quarterly Index Review notifying no change in constituents for Pakistan in its main Frontier Market (FM) Index and also included the country in MSCI FM 100 and MSCI 15% Country Capped Index, which may generate some additional inflows. Topline Securities, a brokerage, said the current positivity could be attributed to good corporate announcements that came with higher than expected dividends, adding the positive trend in the market may continue.
The KSE-100 is currently trading at a PER of 5.1x (2022) compared to the Asia-Pacific regional average of 13.9x while offering a dividend yield of 8.5% versus 2.3% offered by the region.
