Global and domestic food prices were already close to all-time highs before the war, and a large question mark looms over the next seasons’ harvests worldwide due to the sharp increase in fertilizer prices as well. Because Ukraine and Russia account for over a quarter of the world’s annual wheat sales, the war has led to a significant rise in the price of food, not only wheat but barley, maize, and edible oil among others exported by these two countries. As the devastating war in Ukraine rages on causing untold suffering, its impact is being felt far beyond its borders, battering a world emerging from a pandemic that has hit developing countries hardest. Among the most critical is the food price crisis, calling into question the affordability and availability of wheat and other essential staples. There is no downplaying the blow that the war has dealt to food systems, already fragile from two years of COVID-19 disruptions, climate extremes, currency devaluations, and worsening fiscal constraints.
As worrying as these trends are, this is no time to panic. Here is a fact which may surprise you: Global stocks of rice, wheat, and maize the world’s three major staples remain historically high. For wheat, the commodity most affected by the war, stocks remain well above levels during the 2007-2008 food price crises. Estimates also suggest that about three-quarters of Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports had already been delivered before the war started.
Whether we succeed in managing food price volatility and navigating our way out of this new crisis depends on national policies and global cooperation. Unfortunately, this is not the first time that we have confronted a food crisis. We must not make the same mistake. By contrast, at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries kept food trade flowing even as lockdowns affected ports, freight, and labor mobility. This cooperative behavior helped limit disruptions to global food supply chains and avoided making a bad situation worse, thereby benefiting all countries. Such evidence and experience must be our guide, to balance immediate crisis response, with the long, hard road ahead to build a more resilient food system that protects people against shocks. Learning from experience, countries and international organizations must again stand united in their commitment to keep food moving. The G7 has called on all countries to keep their food and agricultural markets open, and to guard against any unjustified restrictions on their exports. It is imperative to maintain or expand social protection programs that cushion the blow for consumers. Not only food availability, but food affordability is a concern especially in low- and middle-income countries, where people tend to spend a larger share of their income on food than in high-income countries. Many were already cutting back on spending before the war due to reduced incomes and rising food prices. In a resource constrained environment, governments should prioritize support for the most vulnerable households.
While global food stocks are adequate now, we need to protect the next season’s harvest by helping food producers cope with a sharp increase in inputs including fertilizer costs and reduced availability.
Removing input trade barriers, focusing on more efficient use of fertilizers, and repurposing public policies and expenditures to better support farmers could all help safeguard food production six months from now.
It’s also time we invest in more Research and Development in this area: scaling up the nascent science and application of biofertilizers, less dependent on fossil fuels than synthetic fertilizers, would increase sustainable options for farmers.
