Sajid Anwar Wardak
The 54-year rule of the Assad family in Syria has come to an end. Bashar al-Assad, who ruled for 24 years, has fled Damascus. The army that overthrew him was composed of 50 small and large groups and 30,000 rebels. They launched coordinated attacks from the north and south, leaving Assad’s forces unable to defend effectively. Israel also launched an offensive from the Golan Heights, further pressuring the regime. Alongside Bashar al-Assad, about 100,000 soldiers either abandoned their posts or joined the rebels. This uprising was led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, and the regime was toppled in less than two weeks. The operation resulted in approximately 820 casualties, while the United Nations reported that 370,000 people were displaced. Historically, since the movement began in 2011, around 500,000 lives have been lost.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an alliance with roots in groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda, played a key role in the overthrow. The movement originated in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, an Al-Qaeda affiliate formed under the influence of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. In 2016, Abu Muhammad al-Julani reorganized the group, distancing it from Al-Qaeda and renaming it Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. These rebels are highly trained in combat tactics, night operations, and the use of drones. They are equipped with advanced American-made weapons and vehicles, making them a formidable force in the conflict.
The conflict in Syria is deeply rooted in larger geopolitical dynamics, with one of the most significant factors being the “Great Arab Game.” Bashar al-Assad relied heavily on three major allies: Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, all of whom are considered staunch adversaries of the United States and Israel. Russia, in particular, had a significant presence in Syria, establishing up to three military bases along the 193-kilometer-long coastline of Tartus. This included deploying advanced air defense systems in the region. However, with the fall of Bashar al-Assad, the geopolitical balance has shifted dramatically. This development can be seen as a major victory for the United States and Israel and a significant setback for Iran and Russia. For Russia, the loss represents a substantial defeat in the ongoing “Great Arab Game,” undermining its influence in the region and diminishing its strategic foothold in the Middle East.
Another key factor in the Syrian conflict is the deep-rooted sectarian divide, reflecting the historical tensions between the Sunni and Shia communities. This division has played a significant role in shaping the dynamics of the war. The majority of the rebels have the backing of Syria’s Sunni population, which constitutes approximately 74% of the country’s total population. This sectarian alignment has fueled the rebellion, as many Sunnis view the largely Alawite regime of Bashar al-Assad, a sect linked to Shia Islam, as oppressive and unrepresentative of their interests. The ongoing discord between these two religious groups has further escalated the conflict, making it not only a political and strategic struggle but also a sectarian one.
A third significant factor contributing to the Syrian conflict is the internal divisions among Arab states. These divisions have repeatedly played into the hands of external powers. For instance, during the Iraq conflict, Iran extended its support to the NATO. In Libya, the Gulf countries provided substantial backing to overthrow its government. In Syria, Turkey has played a pivotal role in toppling Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Meanwhile, many other Islamic nations have remained passive, indirectly supporting Israel’s strategic interests. These internal rifts have facilitated progress toward the “Greater Israel” project, an expansionist vision conceived during the 1960s and 1970s. The idea gained momentum after the Six-Day War in 1967, during which Israel captured significant territories, including the Gaza Strip, Sinai Peninsula, West Bank, and Golan Heights. The concept of Greater Israel encompasses a vast region stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates, including parts of Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the occupied Palestinian territories. Israel has emerged as the dominant power in the Middle East, having neutralized the military capabilities of Iraq, Libya, and now Syria. Organizations such as ISIS and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham operate with support from external actors, including the United States, Israel, and Turkey, further destabilizing the region. The question now is which country might face a similar fate next—Jordan, Egypt, or Kuwait.
