Najm us Saqib
In a world where messages are being conveyed through missiles, diplomacy becomes irrelevant, if not redundant. In an environment where cruise missiles are ‘accidentally’ fired, uranium is sold in local supermarkets, and no one takes any action on overt assassination attempts on foreign soil, how is one supposed to adhere to the lessons of International Law? Is there any room left for dwelling on the importance of human rights when humans are perishing under the watchful eyes of the United Nations? No one could possibly explain how a sitting Prime Minister proudly proceeds with his ‘operation clean-up’ even after receiving arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court. How does one react to a situation where ‘terrorists’ occupy countries at will and the US President-elect is pondering over annexing Canada?
Hence, the biggest challenge the world will face in 2025 and beyond is how best to adjust one’s foreign policy sails in the choppy waters of international relations. With huge problems to address internally, a nuclear Pakistan also finds it difficult to claim to have a foreign policy, let alone a strong one. Any country’s foreign policy is a reflection of its domestic political, economic, social, and security situation. Therefore, to understand the contours of a viable foreign policy Pakistan could envisage for the foreseeable future, one must first see what lies inside the box. Once a doable plan of action is in place to deal with pressing domestic issues, the picture will become clearer, allowing for an evaluation of the challenges Pakistan will face in the foreign policy domain in 2025 and beyond. Otherwise, it will remain an academic exercise ‘worth reading’ only.
To make Pakistan strong, it must be made economically secure first. Presently, our economic woes continue unabated as additional conditions are being placed on the disbursement of the IMF’s seven-billion-dollar arrangement. The skyrocketing Stock Market means practically nothing if several million more people have fallen below the poverty line in 2024. According to the World Bank: ‘Pakistan has made recent progress towards macroeconomic stabilisation, but risks remain extremely high and faster sustained growth will require substantial reform.’ In the same report, the World Bank has highlighted serious issues facing today’s Pakistan, such as a ‘potential economic crisis,’ ‘political uncertainty,’ ‘global monetary policy tightening,’ and ‘fiscal and external imbalances.’ Among other things, these factors have ‘led to pressures on domestic prices and foreign reserves.’ Under these circumstances, the ‘Uran Pakistan’ will face all sorts of problems in becoming a trillion-dollar economy by 2035. Like all such previous plans, this one too is likely to be forgotten soon.
Besides creating various security-related issues, terrorism hinders economic progress domestically and deters foreign direct investments (FDIs). The recent wave of terrorism—Afghanistan’s adamant stance on the Khawaraj (TTP) and the like; Washington’s total neglect of its erstwhile ‘strategic’ partner’s economic and security concerns; the region’s volatile predicament, particularly in the face of the ongoing Middle East crisis; and the West’s overall policy of leaving Afghanistan to its own devices—paints a grim picture for Pakistan. Add to this the intricacies of Sino-Pak relations, Pak-Russia, Pak-Iran, Pak-India, and Pak-US relations—particularly once Donald Trump enters the White House on 20th January—and we have quite a heavy agenda to manage.
The economic crunch and the ongoing political uncertainty do not leave the present government with many options. Crisis management—as opposed to conflict resolution—seems to be the order of the day. Therefore, expecting Islamabad to review and update the first-ever National Security Policy (2022) seems a far cry. It may be recalled that this document, inter alia, encompassed the country’s foreign policy as well. Complete silence over this important aspect of policymaking speaks volumes about Islamabad’s seriousness in evaluating Pakistan’s present and future role in the comity of nations.
The diplomats who were supposed to fight for the country on the ‘first line of defence’ are seeking postings abroad to cater to the needs of their families. As the High-Powered Selection Board (HPSB) has not convened its meeting since March 2023, a few Grade-21 officers are presently making their post-retirement plans without being promoted. Surprisingly, out of a total of twelve Grade-22 posts in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, eight are currently vacant. Similarly, seven Grade-21 posts are also waiting to be filled. To top it all, a few important slots in some key missions abroad continue to be occupied by ‘Ambassadors-for-life,’ clearly indicating a severe ‘shortage’ of competent serving officers. As if this was not enough to discourage both the serving officers and aspiring CSS exam candidates, recent pension cuts have further demoralised the already ‘troubled’ Foreign Office.
The determinants of foreign policy are well known. All one needs to do is ask oneself one basic question: Are you one of the few or one of the many? If you happen to be one of the few, frankly, it’s a matter of hours to come up with a flawless foreign policy. However, things become extremely difficult if you happen to be one of the many and perceive yourself otherwise. Perception needs to be separated from reality. In this way, instead of viewing the major powers from your perspective, you may focus more on how they view you. Now your feet are on the ground, and you can see clearly what needs to be done.
The writer is a former Ambassador of Pakistan and author of eight books in three languages. He can be reached at najmussaqib1960@msn.com
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