Imran Malik
The severity of the regional geopolitical environment is epitomised by the photograph of the Afghan Foreign Minister, Mr Muttaqi, shaking hands with Indian Foreign Minister, Mr Jaishankar, in New Delhi. Mr Muttaqi was on a week’s visit to India. They made an extremely odd couple. They both represent radical, ultra-orthodox, religious persuasions; uncompromising nationalistic, xenophobic ideologies; and extreme right-wing political thought — albeit all diametrically opposed to each other’s beliefs! In the past, they have been berating one another wholesomely. It is a fascinating study in contrasts, blatant contradictions, incredulity, and outright opportunism. However, their current bonhomie is negative in nature, brought about solely by their shared animosity towards Pakistan. India is a past master at fishing in troubled waters and will exploit this strange convergence of interests with Afghanistan to target Chinese interests in the APR too!
The US feels compelled to pursue its interests in the South-Central Asian Region and, in particular, the APR, proactively. At the moment, it has no footprint in the region. It had to beat a hasty, unbecoming retreat from Afghanistan in 2021, is ostensibly at odds with India (temporarily), and is trying to lure Pakistan back into its fold despite its known, unbreakable, unyielding strategic partnership with China. The US is following a two-pronged strategy to reassert itself in the region at large. One, it has made a renewed bid for the Bagram Airbase near Kabul. Afghanistan is located at the confluence of the “three Asias — West, Central, and South”. Any major power with a military presence there will be in an extremely advantageous strategic position. Its strategic reach would cover all extremes of the three Asias — most critically, China!
The second prong seeks an ingress into Balochistan, which rightfully boasts enormous deposits of Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Elements (CM & REE). Critically, this is precisely where the Chinese BRI-CPEC passes through too. Any US ingress into Balochistan will thus have two extremely critical implications at the geostrategic level. One, it will bring the BRI-CPEC into direct contact with, and within reach of, the US and its multifarious agencies. All options thereafter will thus be open. Secondly, China holds a monopoly over the REE worldwide, and especially in the most complex and intricate science of mining, extracting, separating, refining, metal-making, and end-product manufacturing. The US needs to neutralise this Chinese leverage and control and is moving quite decisively to that end. It thus feels constrained to engage Pakistan at this critical juncture in geopolitics and seek unrestricted access to its vast mineral, CM & REE deposits in Balochistan as well as Gilgit-Baltistan.
China too has enormous interests in the region. It has planned to invest about USD 500 billion in the region — USD 400 billion in Iran over twenty-five years, USD 70 billion in the BRI-CPEC, and another USD 30 billion in Afghanistan. It is least likely that it will let its massive investments or its consequent geopolitical, geostrategic, and geoeconomic advantages and interests be nullified so easily. Furthermore, the extension of the BRI into the Greater Middle East Region will be facilitated by its position in Balochistan and the Mekran Coast in particular. The militarisation of the Mekran Coast will give it untold geopolitical and geostrategic advantages, which will further support its geoeconomic interests. In Afghanistan, China is already investing heavily in mining and infrastructure. The presence of any foreign power on the Bagram Airbase, hostile or otherwise, would not be in its or the region’s interests. It will instigate a very explosive clash of interests and thoroughly destabilise the APR and the region at large. It will be the TTA Government’s prerogative, however, to give access to the Bagram Airbase to any power it desires or to withhold it.
For the moment, however, the Pak–Afghan ceasefire and proposed talks in Istanbul may have forestalled further degeneration of the strategic environment. Pakistan must, however, carefully analyse the interplay of interests of the major powers in the APR and seriously consider the ramifications of the choices that it makes. Does the APR have enough geopolitical and geostrategic space to accommodate two antagonistic, competing global powers? Can they possibly coexist peacefully in a compressed, congested, and volatile strategic environment? Will their presence instigate a further vitiation of the strategic environment leading to inevitable destabilisation and turmoil? Will their interests inexorably overlap and/or clash? Will Pakistan be able to manage such a vital, critical, and sensitive situation? Will newer geopolitical alignments emerge from this chaos? How will Iran react to finding the US in its backyard yet again? Crucially, will the terrorists in Afghanistan spare the US presence in Balochistan or attack it and cause further mayhem? Critically, the acquisition of the Pasni and Gwadar ports on the Mekran Coast will thus become inevitable for both major powers; the geopolitical, geostrategic, and geoeconomic stakes and connotations thereof will be colossal!
Pakistan will do well to consider and analyse all dimensions of its engagement with the US. It must have a balanced approach but without prejudice to its strategic partnership with China. That must be preserved at all costs. It must seek peace in the APR and have strong, friendly, completely functional, and mutually supporting ties with Afghanistan and all other regional players. It must follow a policy that primarily serves its vital national interests — to the absolute exclusion of all other considerations! Crucially, it must ensure that it does not get caught in the crossfire of superpower rivalry and that it, and in particular Balochistan, does not become a battleground for the two major powers of the world. Pakistan must remember the age-old adage: “When elephants fight, it is the grass that gets trampled upon!” Period.
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.
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