Rear Admiral (retd) Faisal Shah
Ever since the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025 began, there were rumours of regime change in Iran, which subsided with the end of the war. President Trump’s aggressive, yet conflicting statements since then have done nothing but confusing overall understanding of the situation. During the recent protests across Iran, the hopes of regime change resurfaced, however not only were the protests controlled amicably, but the regime also survived in strength. Analysts have been guessing what comes next in Iran. This article is an attempt to shed the fog and clarify the situation as much as possible.
Iran’s theocratic regime, patronised with the concept of Vilayet e Faqih took over the reins of the country post 1979 revolution against the monarchy. One may recall that, at that time also the protests were also basically motivated via economic hardships being faced by the people. The protests were turned into an ideological movement that saw defections from the governmental organs, and support for Shah was flinched. The new system was overwhelmingly adopted, and the country had to undergo massive changes, including the constitution. Soon after, the Iran-Iraq war erupted, which lasted for eight years, during which precious lives were lost on both sides. The theocratic rule in Iran gained its traction during the war and was further substantiated when Shuhada were accorded due importance in Iranian society, while care for their families was institutionalised post-war. Today, this system is engraved in Iranian society at the lowest level of political structure. There are many who are direct beneficiaries of this system, which, besides the people working across this hierarchy, are Basijis (20 M strong volunteer security force) and families of Shuhada, who are supposedly a privileged community. The system therefor,e has multilayered protection.
The Supreme Leader, who, according to Vilayat e Faqih is the Guardian Jurist, is more like an institution than a singular person. He is not only a political figure but also a religious entity with followers both inside and outside Iran. Any derogatory treatment of him akin to what was meted by Saddam Hussain, Muammar Gaddafi, Maduro, or Osama Bin Laden will be disapproved by his followers across the world. The Supreme Leader’s decisions are final and binding and he acts as the symbol of stability. He is seriously listened to by both domestic and international audiences. In accordance with Vilayat e Faqih, a complete political procedure exists that can replace the Supreme Leader under any circumstances but his removal that too with the aid of a foreign power, may not be to the liking of the majority in Iran.
Under the current financial hardships, people are wary of the regime for its policies, primarily accusing it of spending money on elements outside the country rather than the people inside Iran. They are, however, also conscious of the fact that a bad economy is an outcome of the decade-long sanctions over Iran, for which the US and its allies are also responsible. Considering that people of Iran outrightly support the US if it attempts to change the regime is a misnomer as during the 12-day war in June 2025 also, people were seen united more against the US than for it.
Israel is also an undesirable entity within Iranian society, and anyone having nexus with it is not likely to gain much traction withinthe Iranian public, so was the “Crown Prince” despite his much-trumpeted social media appearance and utmost efforts through Israel. Although people have been against the policies of the regime, which was evident through the concurrent protests, yet the regime has also been listening to the people cautiously and giving them the required space. Iran of today is not the country it was three years back, when a great deal of social liberties is vivid.
The writer is a freelance columnist and can be reached via faisel68.fs@gmail.com
