The diplomacy around Iran made another set of headlines on Tuesday when Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said signals from the previous two or three days suggested Washington and Tehran were close to “some sort” of arrangement. Meanwhile, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi landed in Tehran for the sixth time in the last six months for talks with Iranian officials amid mediation efforts.
As if to dampen growing hopes, US President Donald Trump offered his own strategic menu: let Iran fail economically or hit it “really, really hard.” A day earlier, he had demanded compensation from Tehran for damages to “the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza.” Such contradictions have become more consequential than presidential theatrics.
Iran continues to make reopening Hormuz conditional on sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, an end to military threats and other concessions broadly resembling provisions discussed under the June understanding. Washington, meanwhile, maintains its blockade while seeking unhindered navigation through a waterway that normally carries roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG. Tehran’s use of maritime disruption as leverage deserves no romantic interpretation as attacks on commercial shipping have widened the economic battlefield and imposed costs far beyond the combatants. Yet months of American firepower, including another intensive campaign in July, have still failed to wrest control of the Strait from Iran.
That leaves both capitals confronting the limits of coercion. Iran can hurt regional economies and global energy markets, though prolonged closure also deepens its own isolation and economic pain. America can destroy another military site, tighten sanctions or hit another piece of infrastructure, but the political return from each additional strike has steadily diminished. A recent US poll put approval of Mr Trump’s handling of the war at just 28 per cent while 58 per cent expected gasoline prices to worsen. Eighteen American service members have been killed, and concerns persist over depleted stocks of precision long-range missiles.
The regional response is therefore worth watching more closely than another Truth Social broadside. Qatar’s latest assessment that the Hormuz talks are at an advanced stage matters because Doha, Muscat and Islamabad now appear to be working different parts of the same diplomatic puzzle.
There is still plenty that can go wrong. Four sailors were reported killed on Tuesday in an alleged Houthi attack in the Bab el-Mandeb. Every fresh missile adds another complication to fragile negotiations already carrying the weight of Hormuz, sanctions and Iran’s nuclear future. Washington now needs steadiness more than another ultimatum. Tehran, too, will have to decide how much leverage it can extract before coercion begins consuming its diplomatic gains.
The mediators can keep carrying messages, narrowing differences and even keeping doors open. Yet, they cannot manufacture the political decision that still has to be made in Washington and Tehran.
