On the eve of Tuesday’s American midterms, the final polls showed a Democrat seven points ahead in Texas, where President Donald Trump won comfortably two years ago. James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50 to 43 per cent. Democrats also lead in Michigan, Ohio and Kansas, while Alaska and Iowa are separated by barely a point or two. Surveys can misread turnout, particularly in Republican territory. Still, these are uncomfortable numbers for a party defending its hold on Congress. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are being contested. Republicans hold 218 House seats against the Democrats’ 214, with one independent and two vacancies. They control the Senate 53-47. Democrats must secure 218 House seats and gain four Senate seats to wrest control of both chambers from the Republicans. A 50-50 Senate would remain under Republican control through Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. A Democratic House could summon officials, investigate the Iran war and bargain over spending. Senate control would also affect judicial and cabinet confirmations. Neither would erase Trump’s veto or executive powers. More difficult for the White House is an economy that looks healthier in Washington than it feels across America. Output grew at an annualised 3.4 per cent last quarter, unemployment was 4.2 per cent in September, and business investment surged at an annualised rate of 12.7 per cent. Wall Street has benefited from the artificial intelligence boom. Yet consumer prices and average hourly earnings have each risen roughly 5.5 per cent since January 2025, leaving workers with little improvement in purchasing power. In a late-October poll, 73 per cent said the cost of living was heading in the wrong direction, and Trump’s approval stood at 32 per cent. Tariffs, rising fuel prices and the war with Iran have brought foreign policy into household budgets. The numbers may suggest economic resilience, though voters have their own way of measuring prosperity. Democrats have troubles of their own. Agreement over opposing Trump does not amount to agreement on governing. The contest between economic populists and centrists will follow them into 2028, whatever Tuesday brings. Congress already faces a December 11 deadline over federal funding, with the debt ceiling expected to become another contentious issue in 2027. A Democratic Congress could restrain Trump, but also give him someone to blame for another Washington stalemate. Meanwhile, the Justice Department’s planned deployment of roughly 1,000 election monitors has unsettled some state officials, although the department insists its personnel will observe rather than interfere with voting. Writing closer to home, the importance for Pakistan lies less in party labels than in the institutions exercising American power. Congressional committees can question war policy, trade decisions and sanctions, yet the White House retains considerable freedom to act. Going forward, Pakistan will need working relationships on Capitol Hill as well as with the administration, without mistaking congressional resistance for a wholesale change in US foreign policy.
