Among the laptops, skills programmes and employment initiatives announced on International Youth Day, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif offered an unsparing diagnosis. Pakistan, he conceded, remains “far” from the social welfare state envisaged at its creation. He then described the country as many families already experience it: one Pakistan sends children from expensive schools to leading universities, and another leaves millions struggling for even basic education. The candour is welcome because economic stabilisation has brought Islamabad to the harder stage of recovery–deciding how much of it eventually reaches the household.
GDP expanded by 3.7 per cent last year, its strongest performance in four years, though rapid population growth dilutes what headline expansion can deliver per citizen. Official poverty has meanwhile climbed from 21.9 per cent in 2018-19 to 28.9 per cent in 2024-25, reversing more than a decade of gains and leaving roughly 70 million Pakistanis below the national poverty line. Rural poverty has risen to 36.2 per cent and the Gini coefficient from 28.4 to 32.7. It goes without saying that the pandemic, floods, inflation and painful stabilisation all contributed. The present government inherited much of that damage and deserves credit for rebuilding reserves and restoring macroeconomic order. Its success will now be measured by whether repaired balance sheets begin repairing family finances.
Nearly 40 per cent of children under five are stunted by the World Bank’s estimate; one-quarter of primary-age children remain outside school and roughly three-quarters of those who attend cannot read and understand a simple story by the end of primary education. The Economic Survey puts literacy at 63 per cent, falling to 54 per cent among women and 44 per cent among rural women. These disadvantages accumulate quietly through childhood and follow millions into working life. More than 85 per cent of Pakistan’s jobs remain informal, leaving an enormous hole between poverty relief and lasting security. Millions work without reliable pensions, unemployment protection, paid sick leave or insurance against losing an income. They may sit above BISP’s eligibility threshold today and tumble below it after one hospital admission tomorrow. The fiscal ledger deserves equal attention. Federal tax expenditures were estimated at Rs2.353 trillion in FY25 through exemptions, credits, reduced rates and other concessions. Many support legitimate economic objectives, but their scale deserves the same relentless scrutiny applied whenever assistance to poor households is increased. Article 38 has carried Pakistan’s welfare promise for decades, while the 18th Amendment means much of its delivery now rests with the provinces. The next phase therefore requires fewer islands of excellence surrounded by weak systems and greater insistence on measurable outcomes across the federation.
