With nearly 60% of the population under the age of 25, Pakistan has what could be an enormous demographic dividend, but without education, skills, and job opportunities, this youth bulge becomes a time bomb of discontent
Dr Zafar Khan Safdar
In the grand theatre of nations, some rise by design, others stumble through chance. Pakistan, blessed with youth, geography, and potential, has yet to fully awaken to its promise. Its challenges, so often viewed as insurmountable weights, may in truth hold the seeds of its rebirth. Population, poverty, and economic struggle are not unique to this land, nor are they permanent conditions. They are reflections of choices made, systems maintained, and opportunities left unattended. But what has been built can be rebuilt, and what has been delayed can still be delivered. Around the world, countries have turned despair into discipline, and chaos into clarity, not by magic but by will, wisdom, and unwavering purpose. Pakistan’s future, too, hinges not on what it lacks, but on how it chooses to use what it already possesses.
As of 2025, Pakistan’s estimated population has crossed 261 million, making it the fifth most populous country in the world. However, more alarming than the number itself is the rapid growth rate, which hovers around 1.9% annually, one of the highest outside Sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic burden is evident in overcrowded cities, strained infrastructure, and an overstretched education and health system. With nearly 60% of the population under the age of 25, Pakistan has what could be an enormous demographic dividend, but without education, skills, and job opportunities, this youth bulge becomes a time bomb of discontent. The link between unchecked population growth and poverty is well established. As families grow larger without corresponding increases in income, resources per capita dwindle. In rural areas, where fertility rates remain the highest, poverty is often intergenerational, compounded by low literacy, poor health outcomes, and lack of access to family planning.
Poverty that affects approximately 45% of the population when measured using the multidimensional poverty index (MPI), remains the most visible face of Pakistan’s crisis. While urban slums reflect visible destitution, rural poverty often goes unrecorded but is just as severe. Income inequality, poor agricultural productivity, gender disparities, and limited social safety nets all reinforce a vicious cycle. In particular, the role of women in both the population and poverty debates is crucial. Pakistan ranks among the lowest in the world for female workforce participation (hovering around 21%), and many women lack access to reproductive health services and decision-making power within families. A prosperous Pakistan must first be a Pakistan where its women are educated, employed, and empowered.
The economic challenge is no less severe. The economy, hamstrung by chronic fiscal deficits, an ever-widening trade imbalance, energy shortages, and a heavy reliance on debt-driven development, has little room to breathe. Pakistan’s external debt crossed $125 billion in 2024, with an increasing portion consumed by interest payments alone. Foreign direct investment remains weak, industrial growth is stagnant, and inflation routinely is in double digits, most recently averaging 22%. The Pakistani rupee has lost over 50% of its value in the past three years, diminishing purchasing power and increasing the cost of imports. Moreover, tax collection remains abysmally low, with the tax-to-GDP ratio hovering around 9.2% among the lowest in the world. Corruption, red-tapism, and political instability have all contributed to a climate of economic uncertainty and investor hesitation.
Yet this bleak picture is not without precedent. Countries like Bangladesh, once considered behind Pakistan in development indicators, have surged ahead in several key areas. Bangladesh’s focus on family planning since the 1980s, coupled with robust investments in female education and empowerment, brought its fertility rate down from over 6 births per woman in the 1970s to around 2.1 today. This demographic shift was complemented by a thriving garment sector, export-oriented policies, and a strong network of microfinance institutions, helping lift millions out of poverty. In contrast, Pakistan’s fertility rate remains close to 3.4, and its export basket has stagnated. Similarly, Vietnam offers another powerful comparison. After decades of war and poverty, Vietnam adopted market reforms in the 1980s and transformed into one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies. With literacy rates exceeding 94% and a focus on vocational training, Vietnam capitalised on its young population. It prioritised export competitiveness, reduced red tape for businesses, and negotiated trade agreements with major global blocs. Its poverty rate fell from over 70% in the early 1990s to under 5% today. Even Rwanda, emerging from the horrors of genocide, has demonstrated how a country can rebuild through decentralised governance, massive investments in healthcare and education, and national unity initiatives.
What do successful nations have in common? Vision beyond elections, investment in people, inclusive economies, and governance that earns trust. Pakistan must draw similar lessons, depoliticise family planning, embed it in healthcare, and engage communities with empathy. Girls’ education must become a strategic imperative, not charity. Rote learning must give way to skills for the future. Economically, bold reforms can no longer wait, including tax simplification, privatisation of failing enterprises, and an export-led agenda. MSMEs, digital finance, and modern agriculture are Pakistan’s engines of inclusive growth. Governance reform is the keystone. Digital public services, civil service accountability, and justice that reaches the ordinary citizen will restore faith in the state. These challenges are intertwined; population, poverty, and economic stagnation feed each other. Through informed and deliberate decisions, Pakistan can turn its challenges into opportunities and break free from the cycle of recurring crises. Pakistan must move beyond mere survival and confront the hard choices that will determine whether it remains constrained by old failures or steps into a more stable, self-directed future.
The writer is a Ph.D in Political Science and a visiting faculty at QAU Islamabad. His area of specialisation is political development and social change. He can be reached at zafarkhansafdar@yahoo.com and tweet@ zafarkhansafdar.
