‘Like UK variant squared’
The variant from India is perhaps the most contagious coronavirus mutation on the planet, according to Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Leuven in Belgium.
Wenseleers was the first scientist to claim that the UK variant was more transmissible than other versions of the virus, a claim first disputed but later affirmed by other experts.
“The new variant from India has a very big transmission or growth advantage,” even over the UK mutation, he said in an interview with an American radio network, NPR. “It’s kind of like the UK variant squared.”
Wenseleers told NPR that this advantage was fueling the massive outbreak in India, on top of other contributing factors, such as recent mass gatherings, election rallies and relaxing of precautions.
The NPR report noted that over the winter, the situation in India looked normal: Covid-19 case numbers were flat and even dropping.
Then in the middle of February and early March, the situation quickly shifted. The virus surged explosively. Now India is battling a horrific second wave of Covid-19, reporting about 400,000 cases and more than 4,000 deaths every day.
Dr Roderico H. Ofrin, the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) representative to India, however, puts more blame on India’s failure to follow standard operating procedures (SOPs). “We saw that people were not behaving in a way that was appropriate to slowing Covid-19, and I think that’s why we are where we are,” he said. “There are many reasons, but basically, we gave the virus a chance to keep transmitting.”
‘No model to predict virus spread’
Dr Yasmin Ali Haque, the Unicef representative in India, said in the same UN report that it would take years to overcome the consequences of this pandemic.
“We are already seeing the secondary effects, especially on children and the poorest and most marginalised groups,” she said.
Dr Haque pointed out that only about 50 per cent of children in India have access to remote learning. That means that around 150 million children of school-going age did not have access. “We are already hearing of stories of an increase in child labour, the early marriage of girls especially and even child trafficking.”
The UN report warned that the current test positivity rate in India, 19pc, was too high. It noted that the infection pattern in India was similar to what was seen in Europe or the United States, but the scale was very different.
Acknowledging that the density of the population was probably also a factor, the report identified that matching the scale of the surge with the scale of the response was the real problem.
“This virus is adapting so fast, that no model has been able to predict how it will spread,” it warned. “We have to be ahead of the game: it’s a cycle of preparedness, readiness, response, and recovery. You can’t stop.”
But the report also noted that India has vast experience of mass vaccination and it would learn to meet this enormous challenge as well.
‘Virus surge threatens to reverse gains’
Another UN report warned that the “deadly new surge in South Asia threatens to reverse global gains against the Covid-19 pandemic and have disproportionate impact on children.”
The report — which includes inputs by the Unicef and WHO — noted that countries across South Asia were witnessing rises in infections, with India accounting for over 90pc of both infections and deaths in the region.
Pakistan was also experiencing a major surge in Covid-19 and the number of cases increased rapidly in recent weeks, with daily cases reaching a seven-day average of 5,500 cases per day, up from an average of 1,100 cases per day in February, the report added.
A humanitarian bulletin from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) noted that the pandemic had impacted the healthcare system in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with hospitals reporting shortages of available beds, oxygen, and other essential supplies.
“The scenes we are witnessing in South Asia are unlike anything our region has seen before,” said George Laryea-Adjei, Uniced Regional Director for South Asia. “We are faced with a real possibility that our health systems will be strained to a breaking point — leading to even more loss of life.”
