Imran Malik
Pakistan may need to further refine its current Afghan policy. Its desired end state henceforth could be to forge very friendly, productive, mutually supporting, and beneficial relations with Afghanistan based upon peace, harmony, shared development, prosperity, and welfare of the peoples, and a pursuit of happiness through converging interests. The ways adopted could be to seek a complete cessation of trans-frontier terrorist attacks into Pakistan, the development and acceptance of a peaceful Pakistan–Afghanistan border leading to meaningful diplomatic and economic interaction at the bilateral, regional, and international levels. Afghanistan could be assisted in coming out of its international isolation and in the removal of sanctions as well. The development of bilateral and regional connectivity and economic interdependence (incorporating Afghanistan into the CPEC) could further fortify mutually beneficial relations. The means adopted could be diplomatic, economic, and, if need be, military/coercive. The Afghan Taliban Government must be continuously engaged to create the desired environment conducive to peaceful co-existence and mutually beneficial diplomatic and economic relationships. Failing which, multidimensional diplomatic, social, informational, economic, and military coercion may be resorted to, as and when required.
Pakistan could yet reiterate its earlier offer to the Afghan Taliban. It had suggested three options. One, the Afghan Taliban could either convince the terrorist groups to stop their unwarranted attacks on Pakistan, or failing which, they themselves could undertake kinetic operations against them. Two, Pakistan Armed Forces and the Afghan Taliban could carry out joint kinetic operations to eliminate this abominable scourge. Three, Pakistan may be given the right/may feel compelled to go cross-border and undertake the necessary kinetic operations itself. Unsurprisingly, the Afghan Taliban rejected all options.
However, it takes two to tango! In case the Afghan Taliban remain adamant in their animosity towards Pakistan and this vile Indo-Afghan connivance against it continues unabated, then it will be compelled to move decisively to secure its vital national interests. Full stop.
Pakistan must then consider/implement a Strategy of Concentric Circles, centred on Afghanistan. The strategic objective would be to isolate and eliminate all terrorist groups in Afghanistan. The concept/intent would be to deprive them of intimate leadership, starve them of war-fighting materials, recruitment opportunities, finances, etc., by achieving an emphatic disconnect between them and their main sources of sustenance and then eliminating them through mission-oriented hot pursuit operations, surgical strikes, etc. As preliminary operations, the Afghan Taliban must remain isolated at the international and regional levels and under excruciating diplomatic, economic, and military pressures/coercion. In particular, the financial links (Hundi, Hawala, electronic) established by India/RAW between their proxies in Afghanistan and their intelligence cells in the Gulf Region must be exposed and summarily busted. Furthermore, links between these terrorist groups and their sleeper cells within Pakistan must be severed.
This strategy would have three concentric circles: the outer at the international/global level, the intermediate at the combined Greater Middle East Region (GMER)–South Central Asia Region level, and the inner one at the regional (Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours) level. Countries at each level must ensure that no trans-frontier movement of illegitimate finances, men, war-fighting materials, weapons, munitions, explosives, equipment, etc., towards Afghanistan is allowed. This will create that desired strategic environment conducive to the eventual reduction and elimination of these vile terrorist groups in Afghanistan.
In practice, Pakistan must seek prompt closure in its counter-terrorism efforts vis-à-vis Afghanistan. To that end, it must pursue a three-pronged policy comprising diplomacy, economic measures, and, if need be, military means. In Phase One, Pakistan must allow Türkiye to mediate and put a stop to these atrocious trans-frontier terrorist attacks into Pakistan. Concurrently, Pakistan must enhance its diplomatic outreach by taking up this case at the OIC, UNSC, UNGA, even the ICC, and other international fora. If this does not bear fruit, then in Phase Two, Pakistan could reinforce the already stern economic coercion measures it has enacted against Afghanistan. Asking the Afghan refugees to return home will further burden the already insolvent Afghan economy and cause severe economic shocks. Furthermore, Pakistan’s cessation of bilateral trade with Afghanistan and transit trade through it must continue till the desired strategic environment is created for a meaningful dialogue and termination of all trans-frontier terrorist attacks. If all else fails, then in Phase Three, a resort to military coercion is inexorable. Pakistan must consider the Body and Brain Warfare strategy. Whereas in Body Warfare efforts are made to reduce the fighting (bayonet) strength of a body of troops, in Brain Warfare, it is the commanders and headquarters that are primarily targeted. The intent is to achieve a debilitating disconnect between the Brain and the Body. This reduces and weakens the command and leadership functions and adversely affects the continuous, uninterrupted flow of strategic/operational/tactical direction to the troops, here, terrorists. A continuous reduction of the terrorists’ command and leadership levels will cause a great deal of confusion and uncertainty in their ranks and adversely affect their war-fighting/terrorism capabilities. Destruction of their command centres, installations, communication channels, supply chains, and financial resources etc. will further circumscribe their militant capacities. If need be, Pakistan must employ its entire military capacity to bear on the terrorist groups to rid itself of this scourge once and for all!
Currently, it is an unsustainable state of affairs at the bilateral and regional levels. This stubborn, unreasonable, illogical, unconscionable Afghan Taliban stance is no longer tenable. The issue of trans-frontier terrorism, of necessity, must come to a closure, either way — through a mutually acceptable Pak–Afghan mechanism or unilaterally by Pakistan! Could Pakistan then feel compelled to go kinetic itself or yet seek joint military operations by regional players as the preferred/final regional counter-terrorism option?
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.
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