TLTP
NEW YORK
Moody’s expects that Japan’s unemployment rate to have risen to 3.2 percent in November from 3.1 percent in October.
According to Moody’s estimates about Asia, Japan’s economy sharply rebounded in the September quarter, but an underwhelming resumption in consumer spending since then, an intensifying domestic third wave of Covid-19, and another contraction in November exports are all expected to have weighed on production and led to further softening in employment.
About Thailand, the rating agency said that the Bank of Thailand is expected to keep its key policy rate steady at 0.5 percent at its December meeting.
Having delivered rates cuts worth 75 basis points to cushion the pandemic’s impact, the central bank has signalled keenness to preserve room for further easing. A strengthening baht remains a major concern for policymakers, but the central bank is expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach for now or consider limited intervention to manage appreciation pressures rather than a rate cut.
Singapore’s industrial activity is likely to have increased by 2 percent in yearly terms in November following a 0.9 percent contraction in October. Singapore’s manufacturing production has rebounded strongly as international restrictions were progressively eased, led by a surge in biomedical and electronics goods production. Even though this trend is expected to persist in the near term, the uncertainty triggered by the Covid-19 resurgence in Western economies is likely to have weighed on overseas order volumes and impacted production in November.
China’s manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index is likely to have settled at 51.8 in December from 52.1 in November. China’s factory activity has continued to strengthen in the post-Covid-19 phase, led by an ongoing revival in global demand, while domestic consumption gradually picked up. Though the aggregate trend is likely to have persisted in December, we expect some easing in new export orders triggered by the stronger resurgence of the virus in the U.S., and an intensifying third wave in key regional markets such as Japan and South Korea, to weigh on the aggregate gains.
South Korea’s exports are likely to have risen by 2 percent in yearly terms in December. South Korea’s trade revival has been supported by a surge in tech and electronics demand, while automobile exports have more recently marked a return to growth. The catch-up, while impressive, will be challenged in December by the COVID-19 resurgence in the U.S., parts of Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, with sharper declines in manufactured goods exports likely to partially offset the otherwise strong demand for electronics and telecom equipment.
