Zulfiqar Ali Meerani
The ongoing war in Central Asia and the global energy crisis has created a trial for the Pakistani economy. The price of crude oil in the international market has once again crossed 100 dollars per barrel. While risks associated with oil reserves, tankers, and important sea routes in the region have increased uncertainty about global supply.
On 16th September 2026, after an increase of Rs. 4.10, the price of petrol in Pakistan has reached Rs. 384.34 per liter, while after an increase of Rs. 6.41, high-speed diesel has reached Rs. 415.83 per liter. This situation is not just a matter of petroleum prices, but in an economy like Pakistan’s that depends on imported fuel, expensive petrol and diesel means that the cost of transport, agriculture, industry, electricity generation, and ultimately food including almost every sector will increase, and is indeed increasing.
After the formula of fixing prices on a daily basis, the public is getting big news of price hikes every day. This trend is not showing any sign of stopping for now. After the Strait of Hormuz, there was already an uncertain situation in Bab al-Mandab, and attacks on Saudi installations by Yemen’s Houthis are making the situation even more serious. America is not able to get out of the war with Iran; rather, the Iran war’s new adventure by it and its allies has put the economy and peace of the entire world at risk.
The American blockade has had a very bad effect on the Iranian economy. But Iran has decided to continue this situation until the American midterm elections, so that President Trump’s popularity continues to decline in this way, and he has to face defeat in the midterm elections. The Iranian leadership estimates that President Trump wants to get out of this war before the midterm elections. But it does not want to do so; now even President Trump has started saying that the war with Iran will end after the midterm elections to be held in November. On the other hand, an American newspaper has claimed about the American rulers that the war with Iran will continue until President Trump’s presidential term ends. Now, in such a situation, there is a strong national possibility that the global petrol market will remain a victim of uncertainty.
On one hand, this is the situation of the global oil market, while on the other hand in Pakistan, the increase in the prices of petroleum products on a daily basis and the daily changing situation is making it difficult. Fixing petrol prices on a daily basis is apparently a method to immediately transfer the fluctuations of the global market to the consumer. But many negative effects of it are coming to the fore for the public. The biggest problem of changing prices every day is the uncertainty of prices. In this, the budget of the common citizen has been severely affected. Traders and industrialists are particularly being affected by this policy. They are having to revise their contracts. Transport companies, industrialists, and the agricultural sector want to fix their expenses in advance. But by not doing so, along with businesses being affected, inflation is also increasing. The monthly transport of the salaried class is becoming uncertain. The benefit of fixing prices daily is to the government rather than the public. Which is transferring the already made deals at the current most expensive price. But it has been seen recently that the immediate benefit of fixing prices day by day has not been transferred to the public. The daily announcement of prices is also creating a continuous feeling of inflation in the minds of the public. Which is also creating an uncertain situation in the market. In this, the issue is not just fixing prices on a daily basis or fixing them for fifteen days, but rather the formula for fixing prices. The public is not even told what the actual price of petrol is in proportion to the international market. How much tax is on it. Including a levy of 80 rupees per liter on petrol and diesel, other duties and margins exceed 188 rupees. Due to these taxes, the price of petrol in Pakistan is 48 to 68 rupees per liter higher compared to India, China, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka in the region. Political parties including Pakistan Peoples Party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, and Jamaat-e-Islami are demanding that the petrol levy be abolished. By collecting levy on petrol and diesel, the federal government is meeting its tax targets. Because meeting targets by imposing levy on petrol is easier than direct taxes. The government says that this levy is inevitable to keep the IMF satisfied.
The government has started a relief of Rs. 100 per liter on monthly purchase of up to 20 to 30 liters for motorcycle, rickshaw, three-wheeler drivers, and owners of 660cc vehicles. According to the government, the purpose of giving targeted relief instead of abolishing the levy is so that this relief can reach the maximum number of people. The Prime Minister also chaired a meeting on a daily basis regarding the progress of this fuel subsidy. The continuously rising prices of petroleum products are also causing a huge increase in Pakistan’s import bill. That is the reason why a smart lockdown has been imposed inside the country. During which there will be holidays on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Proposals like reduction in office timings and grounding 50% of government vehicles, reduction in unnecessary travel, and rotation of employees are also being considered. The continuously rising prices of petroleum products, which are creating the biggest difficulties for the public, are also a severe test for the government. Due to the IMF program, its hands are tied in the matter of relief. In this situation, an increase in public and political pressure is also visible. All this is happening at a time when Jamaat-e-Islami and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf are ready to take to the streets.
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