Faisal Ahmad
Pakistan’s agricultural economy relies almost entirely on the predictable flow of the three Western rivers: the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. It was allocated under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). This treaty has long been the reliable foundation of its national water system. However, this stability is now under intense pressure, creating a truly precarious situation for the country. Despite lacking a clear legal basis, India’s repeated political threats to review or suspend the IWT are creating dangerous uncertainty. It is also fueling anxiety across the farming community. This deliberate risk-taking occurs at a time when accelerating climate change is already disrupting river flows from the Himalayas and making water availability inherently volatile. The convergence of upstream political risks and severe climatic shifts is sharply increasing Pakistan’s exposure to catastrophic water and food insecurity. This double whammy puts the nation’s ability to feed itself at serious risk. Millions are worried about the future of their farms and families.
The Western rivers are the lifeblood of Pakistan’s downstream agricultural system. The reliable flow of these rivers is now being threatened severely. It is facing a perilous combination of threats, including climate-induced volatility and upstream political risks. Climate change is rapidly accelerating the melting of Himalayan glaciers. This fundamentally changes the water source for the Indus Basin. Picture a vital natural water tank getting dangerously erratic. At the same time, monsoon patterns are becoming erratic, which leads to unpredictable periods of flood and drought. This increased hydrological variability means the natural rhythm of river flows-the very basis for planning-is becoming unreliable. Crop cycles, already battered by intense heatwaves and rapid climate shifts, are now being jeopardised by the declining reliability of river flows.
Moreover, the politically motivated threats to the Treaty introduce an element of man-made instability precisely when climate change demands maximum stability. It’s like adding political fire to an environmental fuel. This deliberate uncertainty over treaty continuity seriously undermines Pakistan’s long-term food security planning. It also hampers critical climate adaptation strategies, which in result restricts Pakistan’s ability to manage changing river regimes through necessary infrastructure and policy adjustments. Without a guarantee of water flow, it’s impossible to invest properly in dams, canals and efficient irrigation techniques.
The region that is most dependent on Indus Basin irrigation is the most vulnerable. These water-intensive agricultural areas now face escalating risks like environmental degradation and economic precarity.
Farmers are contending with accelerating risks of yield losses as water becomes scarce or unpredictable. Furthermore, hydrological pressures intensify the threat of soil salinisation and desertification, which makes productive land almost unusable. Millions of livelihoods across Pakistan are directly tied to irrigated farming. As both climate pressures and upstream political risks intensify, these livelihoods are becoming increasingly precarious. The margin for error is shrinking fast. India’s threats to revisit or suspend the treaty escalate Pakistan’s already severe environmental and economic vulnerabilities. This is hitting the poorest communities the hardest, making their survival a daily struggle.
To mitigate Pakistan’s climate vulnerability and safeguard the agricultural backbone of its economy, unequivocal respect for and strict compliance with the Indus Waters Treaty by India is indispensable. The Treaty is more than just a legal agreement; it is a vital mechanism for managing shared resources and ensuring regional stability against the unprecedented challenges posed by a changing climate. Its integrity must be preserved to secure the future for all.
The writer is an alumnus of QAU, a Research scholar & a freelance columnist, based in Islamabad. He can be reached at fa7263125 @gmail.com.
