Istanbul
Last month, the Trump administration imposed fresh sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, signaling a renewed desire to drive Moscow to the negotiating table in its war against Ukraine.
But although these measures have the potential to harm the Russian economy, just how much damage they inflict will depend largely on one actor: Beijing.
China bought almost half the oil Russia exported in 2024, evading Washington’s existing restrictions in the process. And new sanctions alone will do little to push China into significantly reducing its purchases.
The United States does have the power to change Beijing’s calculus.
If U.S. officials threatened to deny major buyers of Russian oil—and their service providers, such as banks—access to the U.S. financial system, Beijing might conclude that whatever savings it derived from purchasing discounted Russian oil was not worth the costs. It might then cease buying from Moscow, depriving Russia of needed money for its war machine. Even if China did not totally put a stop to Russian imports, the United States could use sustained pressure to compel Beijing to reduce purchases or place conditions on Russia’s access to the revenues. Moscow might then finally be forced to negotiate in good faith over ending the war in Ukraine.
But unfortunately, there is little indication that Washington will take such action. Both U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration and the Biden administration before it subordinated pressing China on Russian oil to promoting other interests, including the ability to obtain Chinese rare-earth minerals. Trump is currently trying to preserve the current trade cease-fire with Beijing, something increased sanctions enforcement would likely upend. Yet Trump must test China’s boundaries, even if it means risking the trade cease-fire. If Washington does not stem the pipeline of energy-fueled cash from China to Russia, its overall commitment to sanctions and other kinds of restrictive policies will come into question. China will rightly see the United States as weak willed, unwilling to hold to its convictions or commitments. And the war in Ukraine will continue.
THE CHINA CARD
To make sanctions against Russia effective, the United States needs China to cooperate. But getting Beijing’s help will not be simple. Russia plays a critical role in its neighbor’s energy system, supplying China with nearly one out of every five barrels of oil it imports—more than any other country—including most of China’s pipeline oil imports. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi underscored Russia’s significance at the Munich Security Conference in February. When asked if China would reduce its purchases of Russian energy to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine, Wang responded with a question of his own: “If China does not import oil and gas from Russia, how could it meet its demands and ensure the need of more than 1.4 billion Chinese people?”
